Month: September 2016

  • My trading plan for the electoral college

    My trading plan for the electoral college

    I’ve been saying for ages that the distribution of electoral college votes is my ideal strategy for the closing stretch of the election and today, I’ve published my first bet. New #Election2016 bet: Back Clinton to get 330-359 Electoral College Votes 25u @ 6 – try these 3 bookies. https://t.co/H7td3fKhUP — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) September…

  • Post-debate chat with the WTBQ team

    Post-debate chat with the WTBQ team

    This was one of the highlights of my entire US election tour. After several phone interviews with Frank Truatt and Taylor Sterling, I was invited to be the special guest on two shows, spending the whole morning at WTBQ Radio in Warwick, New York. After their show, I stayed on air with Orange County Legislator…

  • Interview with Fox Business on political betting

    Interview with Fox Business on political betting

    Earlier this month, I visited the Fox Studios to discuss the concept of political betting, past and current US elections and whether these markets represented a superior guide to predicting the result than opinion polls. Here’s the interview with Benjamin Brown. http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/09/20/place-your-bet-hillary-clinton-or-donald-trump.html

  • Five key takeaways from the first Presidential debate

    Five key takeaways from the first Presidential debate

    1 Clinton reversed a bad news cycle to resume pole position Heading into Monday’s opening debate, Hillary Clinton backers had plenty to worry about. A combination of health concerns, intense scrutiny of her e-mails and foundation, plus some improved performances from Donald Trump had whittled down a substantial poll lead to a virtual dead-heat. Her…

  • 5 dynamics that could determine the first debate

    5 dynamics that could determine the first debate

    1 Hillary Clinton’s health and appearance One might like to imagine that a debate to determine leader of the free world would be settled on a sombre analysis of their respective policy credentials, but it has never been the case. Or at least since presidential debates became televised in 1960. Famously, Richard Nixon won that…

  • Trump’s data deficit could cost him the election

    Trump’s data deficit could cost him the election

    Arguably the biggest single reason behind Donald Trump’s successful bid for the Republican nomination was the fact he has never been a politician. In an era when professional politicians and loathed and distrusted like never before, Trump’s outsider status captivated a conservative audience that yearns for someone to shake up the establishment. Entering the final…

  • Labour’s suicidal civil war will escalate, not end after Corbyn’s victory

    Labour’s suicidal civil war will escalate, not end after Corbyn’s victory

    This week, the result of the Labour leadership contest will be announced. The market rates Jeremy Corbyn overwhelming 98% favourite to win at 1.02 but, as announced on Twitter last week, I’m taking no chances and took my 22 unit profit when the odds went to 1.04. Why take the risk when there are party…

  • In blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?

    In blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?

    There is no precise, scientific means of explaining what determines elections, opinion polls or betting markets. Each election and each candidate is unique, and even the individual voter cannot reliably explain why they react in a certain way. My belief, held pretty much throughout my adult life based on the experience in England, is that…

  • Measuring and reacting to Trump’s unarguable momentum

    Measuring and reacting to Trump’s unarguable momentum

    We’ve just seen two milestones passed on Betfair’s Next President market. First, the total matched has passed $50M – my estimate is it will go beyond $200M by polling day. Second and more significantly, Donald Trump has passed another threshold in trading below [3.0]. At [2.96], equivalent to a 34% chance, he’s at his lowest odds yet…

  • #Election2016 interview with TRT World

    #Election2016 interview with TRT World

    On Monday, I spoke to TRT World about the impact of Hillary Clinton’s health scare on the election. I argued that, whilst the belated admission of pneumonia damaged her brand, reinforcing perceptions of secrecy and dishonesty, the incident actually presented an opportunity. If she now issues detailed medical records, it would transfer pressure onto Donald…