Month: October 2018

  • Have the US mid-term markets become too pro-Republican?

    Have the US mid-term markets become too pro-Republican?

    The 2016 effect continues to loom large over all political matters, including betting. Before Brexit and Trump, political betting was arguably the most reliable indicator of election results. In the first 15 years of Betfair, the favourite from 100 days out won every major UK or US election. Then suddenly, politics became extremely unpredictable. Bettors…

  • 2018 US Senate Betting Preview – Ten Key States

    2018 US Senate Betting Preview – Ten Key States

    Arizona still too close to call Click here for latest odds Click here for latest polls A vivid example of the mountain Democrats need to climb in order to gain control of the Senate is that Arizona is rated either their best or second best chance of a gain. A solid red state that has…

  • Are Theresa May’s Brexit machinations about to finally unravel?

    Are Theresa May’s Brexit machinations about to finally unravel?

    So much for the old idea that betting markets were fundamentally sensitive to media reports. Despite several days of febrile speculation and almost universal agreement that the crunch time for Theresa May’s Brexit plans and therefore leadership has arrived, Betfair markets related to her exit date remain virtually unmoved. Markets backing May to survive ahead…

  • How will Kavanaugh’s confirmation affect the mid-terms?

    How will Kavanaugh’s confirmation affect the mid-terms?

    With Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court, the most divisive incident of this most divisive presidency may have been settled, but the culture wars rumble on. The ramifications – whether they be short or long-term, electoral, political, legal or cultural – could be profound. Supreme Court fight has energised Republicans The campaign to stop…

  • How the Trump presidency will end and how to bet on it

    How the Trump presidency will end and how to bet on it

    Nobody in politics has ever known anything quite like Donald Trump and that equally applies to betting. His entry in 2015 sparked record-breaking interest in the US election and his wild ride in office is generating new markets that would previously have been unthinkable. I must declare a long-running interest. I’ve been completely absorbed by…

  • US Senate 2018: Backing No Majority offers numerous routes to profit

    US Senate 2018: Backing No Majority offers numerous routes to profit

    As the fallout from Brett Kavanaugh’s elevation to the Supreme Court dominates the headlines and narrative, the outcome of November’s mid-term elections remains unpredictable. Few are confidently predicting how the politics of this will play out, and those doubts are feeding into the markets. Democrats slip back for House majority From a low of 1.4,…

  • Brexit Betting: Don’t overstate Labour’s ability or motive to stop Brexit

    Brexit Betting: Don’t overstate Labour’s ability or motive to stop Brexit

    Brexit remains – no pun intended – the most unpredictable political process in living memory. Since I last wrote about it, all the main points have come to fruition. Chequers was exposed as a charade. Theresa May has alienated even more Tories by pursuing a widely unpopular deal. A ‘Peoples Vote’ has gained some momentum,…