The number of betting options on politics is growing exponentially and 2019 will be no exception. Elections for the European Parliament will make big news in May and have big implications. A Danish General Election will follow soon after while Sweden – who are yet to resolve coalition talks produced by September’s poll – are rated 2.54 to hold another one in 2019. The Australian Federal Election must take place by November 2nd at the latest.
All will be interesting betting heats and previewed in depth nearer the time but, at this particular moment in history, they simply cannot compete for talking points with the two countries that generate the most betting interest, despite there being no major elections planned. 2019 will see fireworks in both UK and US politics like we’ve never seen before.
Brexit saga will saturate and affect everything
Here in the UK, Brexit dominates and all else follows from it. At the time of writing, Brexit to be completed on 29/03/19 is rated only 43% likely at odds of 2.3 and at 4.0, it is rated 25% likely there will be no Brexit before 2022. Either is perfectly realistic in this unprecedented situation.
In January, Theresa May’s Brexit deal is scheduled to go before parliament and expected to lose. The effect, as parliament tries to take control of the process, could literally be anything from a chaotic, no-deal scenario, a delayed Brexit, a general election or another referendum. As argued earlier, I think we’ll end up with the latter.
All three main party leaders could be gone soon
As and when it all pans out, Brexit will shake up the party system and will do for at least a couple of leaders. Neither Theresa May or Vince Cable will contest the next election (if indeed as scheduled in 2022) and may not survive until 2020. May is odds-on at 1.57 to leave post in 2019 while Cable is 2.7 second favourite behind the PM to be the Next Leader to Leave.