This article first appeared on 25th September 2019 at betting.betfair.com
After months, even years of speculation, Democrats have stepped up. Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed last night that the House of Representatives will begin a formal impeachment investigation into Donald Trump.
The times have found us. The actions taken to date by the President have seriously violated the Constitution. It is for this reason that the House of Representatives is moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry. pic.twitter.com/cHq7zgKJ1g
— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) September 24, 2019
Betfair markets duly reacted in dramatic fashion. From a high of 6.6 and around 4.0 yesterday morning, ‘Yes’ in our Trump Impeachment market was backed into 1.6. It has since drifted back to 2.14.
The importance of reading the rules of this bet cannot be overstated. We are betting on whether a single article of impeachment will pass in the House during his first term. We are not betting on him to be removed from office. If you like that bet, 5.0 is available about him leaving office before the end of his first term.
What happens next?
The next stage of the process is formal investigation, into the new allegations that Trump pressured Ukraine to release dirt on his Democrat rival Joe Biden. That will go alongside into the plethora of criminal and congressional investigations that I’ve reported over several years.
At some stage – I’m guessing in a few months – they must choose whether to put forward any articles to vote on. If and when that vote happens, 218 out of 435 House Representatives must support it. If that passes, Trump goes forward to a trial in the Senate. To convict and remove him from office would require two-thirds of Senators.
Having gradually built up a position on ‘Yes’ at an average around 5.0, I did take the opportunity to cash out a third of it and go ‘all green’ when it hit 1.6 last night. To be crystal clear – that was about taking some cash out of a winning trade, not because I want to bet against impeachment. Far from it.
Democrats are building a stack of charges
I always thought the Democrats would impeach, regardless of these new Ukraine revelations. That the various investigations would bear fruit – they already have, as anyone who has read the multiple cases of obstruction of justice laid out in the Mueller Report.
Getting that fruit is proving frustrating, as the White House have stonewalled. Ten months after taking control of the House, Democrats are only just beginning to get the public testimonies they need. I have long thought that getting Trump’s bank records, especially Deutsche Bank, would provide the ultimate smoking gun.