This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 21st October 2019
In keeping with the general rule of Brexit, the facts changed whilst writing my last piece on Friday. The Letwin Amendment duly obliterated the government’s plan for a straight vote on their Brexit deal and consequently, ‘Super Saturday’ didn’t quite live up to its billing.
It would therefore be folly to presume anything about the days ahead but the fundamentals still apply – Brexit is reaching its endgame.
Will EU accept extension?
Despite protestations from Boris Johnson and the charade of multiple letters saying different things to the EU, an extension to Article 50 has been requested. All calculations are contingent on their response.
The extension request has just arrived. I will now start consulting EU leaders on how to react. #Brexit
— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) October 19, 2019
The government remain adamant they will leave the EU on 31st October. Hard Brexiter MP Daniel Kawczynski is lobbying Poland and Hungary. Any one of the EU27 can veto the extension.
As almost fluent Polish speaker I am doing all I can can to convince Polish govenemt to veto extension of Article 50.Others working on Czechs and Hungarians. One of these will veto I predict. @BorisJohnson @robpowellnews pic.twitter.com/1IslpgIClp
— Daniel Kawczynski (@DKShrewsbury) October 20, 2019
In the meantime, the government will try to bring back the Meaningful Vote today – believing they just about have the numbers to pass. Betfair’s market on it rates ‘Yes’ odds-on at 1.9. Note, however, that the vote must take place today or that market becomes void. As Lewis Goodall of Sky News explains, this is unlikely. Given that the MV is now uncertain to take place this year, I’ve cashed out the bet on Yes advised on Friday at 1.9 at 1.56 for a profit.