Never before have we seen a bigger driver of political betting than Donald Trump’s blockbuster drama. Seasons one and two saw an outsider become the candidate and defy conventional wisdom to become president. Season three involved a chaotic presidency, culminating in humiliating mid-term defeat.
Entering season four, Trump is drowning in legal jeopardy. His ratings are historically awful and re-election will require an extraordinary turnaround. Many doubt series five will ever be made as the FBI encircle the White House, his family and finances. Is this the beginning of the end?
2019 will be a year like no other. The Russia scandal is bigger than Watergate and escalating fast. Having written about it since before Trump was elected, none of the revelations are surprising.
Trump-Russia investigation intensifying
Team Trump’s Kremlin connections were plain to see throughout and the denials widely debunked. Biographers demonstrated long before he entered politics how Trump’s finances would never withstand the scrutiny of office.
That will intensify once the Democrats assume control of the House of Representatives in January. They will investigate everything, using committees and subpoena power to release ever more into the public domain. There is already enough from indictments and plea deals to conclude that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s final report will be damning.
Punters face four questions. Do they share my analysis, or Trump’s claims of a witch-hunt? Will Mueller be sacked or silenced? Will the result be impeachment or resignation? Or can he survive to win a second term in 2020?