The 2012 US Presidential Election was one of my successful political betting markets ever, as I was consistently backing Obama from the 2010 mid-terms onwards. Here for Betfair, in May 2012, I argue he is well-placed to exploit three critical dividing lines.
Political betting can be about more than just party politics, elections and leadership contests. During the summer as the crisis in the Eurozone intensified, one of the most fluid markets concerned the Greek referendum on the Euro, and then whether they would stay in the single currency.
For Betfair in July, when the odds were shortening fast on a Grexit, I analysed the situation and argued that the Greek government and EU would negotiate a deal.
The Chancellor is in pole position to succeed David Cameron
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM – MARCH 19: U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne attends the launch of the National Loan Guarantee Scheme (NLGS) at a Barclays Plc bank branch on March 19, 2012 in London, United Kingdom. Osborne won the backing of all except one of Britain’s major banks for his credit-easing plan that aims to funnel cheap loans to small and mid-sized companies. (Photo by Simon Dawson-Pool/Getty Images)
It has been a pretty good week for George Osborne. His pre-election budget passed off without much controversy and received a good press. It may not have yet generated an improved poll rating for his party, but if the Tories don’t win the election, nobody can blame the budget.
The last parliament saw a dramatic re-alignment in British party politics. The Lib Dems lost two-thirds of their support, while the SNP assumed almost total control of Scottish politics. The transformation of UKIP from irrelevant minor party to European Election winners, by-election insurgents and nationwide force represented another earthquake. 4M votes at the General Election had a profound effect on the result, even though it ultimately yielded only one parliamentary seat.
In this piece for Esquire, from May 2014, I explained the rise of UKIP and their charasmatic leader Nigel Farage.
Will Jeb prove to be another dodgy Republican favourite?
Thanks in no small part to Donald Trump, the 2016 Election campaign has become big news even earlier than usual. 11 candidates, (out of 16 left in the field), will debate in California tomorrow, suggesting the most open race in history.
The fundamental challenge facing 14 of them is simply being heard, in order to build the national name recognition required to compete with household names like Trump and longstanding favourite Jeb Bush. On current prices, this pair are taking out nearly 50% of the book.
SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – AUGUST 25: Labour Leadership Candidate Jeremy Corbyn applauds as he speaks at a rally for supporters at the Hilton at the Ageas Bowl on August 25, 2015 in Southampton, England. Jeremy Corbyn remains the bookiesÕ favourite to win the Labour leadership contest which will be announced on September 12 after the ballots close on September 10 (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
This weekend, the marathon Labour leadership contest will reach it’s conclusion. Jeremy Corbyn, who I tipped right at the start when he was rated less than 4% likely to win, is now an 81% chance. I have no financial interest left, having laid my positions back for a profit, amounting to 14 times the initial outlay.
Here’s my update for @BetfairExchange, along with the original article from June.