Category: UK Politics

  • Poll carnage as Tory and Labour tactics implode simultaneously

    Poll carnage as Tory and Labour tactics implode simultaneously

    Perhaps the best way to understand the stalemate since 2016 and increasingly volatile situation is to see Brexit through the prism of party political games. Decades of opportunism is unravelling Long before the referendum, criticising and opposing EU treaties was a cheap win for any ambitious politician from outside government. Accuracy, detail or the ability…

  • 2019 UK Local Elections Review – Five takeaways

    2019 UK Local Elections Review – Five takeaways

    1 Tory losses far exceeded worst expectations In losing more than 1300 councillors, these results were unarguably awful for the Tories. Yes, they had a long way to fall and a backlash from Brexiters angry at their failure to deliver was predictable. But the scale defied the experts – the higher academic estimate noted in…

  • Local Elections Preview: Lib Dems set to reap rewards of Tory implosion

    Local Elections Preview: Lib Dems set to reap rewards of Tory implosion

    This piece was first published on 30th April 2019. The first of two elections with the potential to blow up British politics takes place on Thursday. Unlike the European Elections which everybody expects to happen at the end of the month, winning candidates will definitely serve their local councils. Tories set for a catastrophic month…

  • Labour rated banker material for the Euros

    Labour rated banker material for the Euros

    This article was first written on 15th April 2019. It is very much an article I wish could be re-written, given that the betting has moved horribly against Labour since. As always, though, we must publish the bad bets as well as the good ones. DO NOT FOLLOW THE BET! In last week’s update, I…

  • Buckle up for betting drama as latest Brexit deadline looms

    Buckle up for betting drama as latest Brexit deadline looms

    This article was first published on April 8th, 2019. We’re approaching Brexit D-Day once again, with the UK scheduled to leave the EU on Friday at 11pm, with no agreement yet in place. This may seem counterintuitive given the deadlock in Westminster but the imminent developments will, one way or another, provide some clarity. Numerous…

  • Buckle up for betting drama as latest Brexit deadline looms

    Buckle up for betting drama as latest Brexit deadline looms

    This article was first published on 8th April 2019, for betting.betfair.com We’re approaching Brexit D-Day once again, with the UK scheduled to leave the EU on Friday at 11pm, with no agreement yet in place. This may seem counterintuitive given the deadlock in Westminster but the imminent developments will, one way or another, provide some…

  • Brexit Betting – New referendum has become the least worst option

    Brexit Betting – New referendum has become the least worst option

    This piece was first published on 2nd April 2019 So, the deadlock and agonising wait for clarity goes on. Yesterday’s second round of indicative votes again failed to produce any consensus whatsoever, with all four motions failing to pass. Parliament still can’t find consensus Some progress however was made. The motion for a confirmatory referendum…

  • Newport West By-Election: Brexit backlash could spark Tory implosion

    Newport West By-Election: Brexit backlash could spark Tory implosion

    Amidst much election talk – whether of the general or European variety – a more imminent poll has yet to capture media attention. Come Friday morning, the Newport West By-Election may well be very newsworthy. Labour near-certain to win big Voters in this relatively safe Labour constituency go to the polls on Thursday, following the…

  • Latest Brexit Betting – General Election goes odds-on

    Latest Brexit Betting – General Election goes odds-on

    This article was first published on March 29th 2019 Odds of 1.86 reflect an emerging consensus amongst pundits that an election is inevitable, given the political impasse. However that could also reflect that we are no more capable of predicting what on earth will happen next. There are plenty of arguments against it. May departure…

  • Which options will emerge from Brexit mega-ballot?

    Which options will emerge from Brexit mega-ballot?

    This article was first published on 27th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com In the most extraordinary series of events since the referendum, Brexit could take any number of different turns over the next few days. Having seized control of the parliamentary timetable in a bid to break the deadlock, MPs will debate and vote on a…