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Five ways conventional wisdom has broken down
As recently as 2014, political betting was arguably the most reliable market for favourite-backers. Suddenly it’s become a haven for historic upsets. Anyone who thought 2016 was a freak year got a rude awakening last month. Based on their respective positions at the start of each campaign, Labour denying a Conservative majority was a bigger…
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Rayner now the value bet to be next Labour leader
Back in the day when politics was predictable, opposition parties struggled to get airtime as the news agenda primarily focused on the government and it’s activities. For two years, the travails, divisions and fast-changing dynamics within Labour have defied that particular piece of conventional wisdom. Just at it seemed the narrative was turning in their…
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Next Tory Leader: The top five candidates rated
Whichever way one looks at it, Theresa May’s days as Prime Minister are numbered. Perhaps it will be soon, as furious Tory MPs blame her for the shocking election result. Perhaps she can survive for a few years, restoring her reputation by skilfully managing an impossibly split Commons and successfully negotiating Brexit. But few ever…
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Where next for the troubled Tories?
If the markets are to believed, the uncertainty and speculation will soon be over. The Next Government is rated 92% likely to be a Conservative Minority with Theresa May a 94% chance to be Prime Minister of it. Whether, after five massive political betting upsets in the space of two years, you regard betting markets…
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General Election 2017: Final predictions
When Theresa May called this election seven weeks ago, the overwhelming consensus predicted a landslide victory. Any non-partisan voices suggesting Labour could put up a fight, let alone deny the Tories a majority, were extremely hard to find. Yet here we are on election eve and there are plenty of punters willing to stake sizeable…
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The best six Conservative constituency bets
National polls are differing wildly but all agree the gap is narrowing. Regardless of their accuracy, that is good news for value-seekers. A problem with the early betting was that, given their enormous poll lead, constituency odds about the Conservatives were extremely prohibitive. That is no longer the case. A crucial factor to remember in…
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Lib Dem demise should ensure a Tory majority
Over the course of the campaign, this election has been likened to many from the past. Inevitably, comparisons were made with Margaret Thatcher, with the early and betting implying Theresa May would even improve on the Iron Lady’s 1983 personal best – a majority of 144. Even if the Tories underperformed, their 1987 majority of…
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Is Corbyn’s youth appeal a gamechanger?
One week from polling day, what exactly is the state of play? Pretty much whenever the same question was asked during the 2015 campaign, the same answer came forth – dead-heat. When it turned out to be completely wrong, pollsters that largely agreed on a daily basis were an easy scapegoat. That cannot be said…
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2017 General Election: The six best Labour constituency bets
So you want to bet on Labour. You’ve seen their polls rise throughout their campaign and believe they have momentum. Jeremy Corbyn has easily surpassed low media expectations, while Theresa May’s ‘strong and stable’ brand has nosedived during the campaign. Moreover, you’ve seen with Brexit and Donald Trump that the media and long-range betting market…
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General Election 2017: 5 dynamics to follow during the TV debates
As we enter the closing stretch, the time has come for those make-or-break TV moments, starting tonight with The Battle for Number Ten on Sky News. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will face a grilling from Jeremy Paxman and a studio audience. Then on Wednesday, BBC host a seven-way debate. This will involve the leaders…