This article first appeared at casino.org on 7th January, 2022
2021 was relatively quiet in terms of political betting but 2022 will be huge. We have constant action throughout the year, across various continents.
Very Worrying Mid-Term Signals For Biden’s Democrats
The biggest markets involve the usual countries. November sees the US mid-term elections for the House of Representatives, a third of Senate seats plus various gubernatorial races.
As the year progresses, as primaries are resolved, I’ll analyze the most exciting races for states and congressional districts but first, let’s consider the big picture.
Prospects are looking grim for the Democrats, with Joe Biden’s approval ratings down below 45 percent, compared to above 50 percent when winning the presidency.
A shock defeat in Virginia and close shave in New Jersey demonstrated how hard it will be to retain their diverse coalition in government, rather than opposition, and without the toxic name of Donald Trump on the ballot.
Consequently, the Republicans are hot favorites to regain both chambers. BetOnline quote odds of 1.12 for them to win the House and 1.33 for the Senate.
Betfair offer appealingly higher about the latter at 1.44.
PredictIt have an interesting four-way market involving the double. The Republicans to win both House/Senate is trading at 68c.
What Will AOC Do Next?
Beforehand, there are numerous interesting primaries to resolve.
For example the odds on PredictIt imply Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a mere 43 percent chance to run again in her NY-14 district. Thus raising the question of her next move.
You can buy at 10c that she’ll run in the Democrat Primary for the NY Senate. BetOnline offer 4.0 that she’ll run for President in 2024 (defined as being on the ballot of the first caucus or primary).
Another famous candidate is involved in the Pennsylvania Senate race, with Mehmet Oz, or “Dr Oz”, rated second favorite for the Republican Primary.
BetOnline offer 5.5 that he’ll be elected to the Senate or 3.0 to win the primary. He’s trading at 26c on PredictIt for the latter. David McCormick is the favorite there, trading around 60c.
Georgia Governor Battle Offers The Best State Markets
The race for Georgia Governor is fascinating on multiple levels.
Stacey Abrams looks certain to be the Democrat candidate but there’s a very competitive primary on the Republican side.
It looks mainly between incumbent Brian Kemp and former Senator David Perdue, with Donald Trump backing the latter while attacking Kemp for failing to back his claims that the presidential election was rigged.
That potential split on the Right means BetOnline make Abrams the favorite, at 2.5 compared to 2.55 for Perdue. 2.8 Kemp.
Winning this race could turn Abrams into a 2024 contender – the same firm offer 34.0 that she wins the Democrat nomination, and 100.0 the presidency.
For me, the most appealing bet is a buy of Kemp for the primary at 44c with PredictIt.
He has a solid local base of support and Trump’s ability to determine such party selections is over-rated.