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Iowa Caucus Verdict: Oppose odds-on favourite Donald Trump
He has defied all expert opinion and conventional wisdom since the beginning of this race six months ago. One by one, rivals that challenged him have been abused and ended up worse for wear. He has the media dancing to his tune and gives the impression that he could be rewriting the rules of political…
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Iowa flip-flop shows perils and potential of primaries betting
After another bad week for one-time runaway Iowa Caucus favourite Ted Cruz, the betting flip-flop is complete. Donald Trump is now down to 1.6, rated a 63% chance to win the opening stage of the Republican primary process. In the Democrat race, Hillary Clinton is forecast to withstand the Bernie Sanders surge at odds of…
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GOP Debate Verdict: Absent Trump the runaway winner
A conspiracy theorist might think the row between Fox News and Donald Trump had been manufactured. It ensured that, during a crucial window in which Iowa voters traditionally take a closer look at all the candidates, the entire media focus was on a celebrity and trivia, rather than policy. It also ensured a debate in…
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Iowa flips towards Trump as Bloomberg threatens a gamechanger
Former NYC Mayor’s mooted bid could alter calculations from all sides After another dramatic week on Betfair’s US Election markets, punters holding long-term positions about Donald Trump and former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg have plenty to celebrate. With voting for the Iowa Caucus just a week away, opinion polls and markets have flip-flopped in favour…
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The Palin Effect: 6 ways her Trump endorsement could impact the election
They are both certain to retain dominance of media coverage, entering a pivotal period. Rarely, if ever, has a political endorsement caused such waves. One could almost hear the cheers in newsrooms and media boardrooms when the news of Palin’s return to the political frontline emerged yesterday. Her speech at Trump’s Iowa rally, littered with…
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New bet: Bank a small profit on Cruz, while leaving big profits available
Time to take the risk out of GOP positions and guarantee a small profit on Cruz In a long election with many twists and turns – plenty of which have already occured before the primaries have even started – the key to making money is timing. As candidates rise and fall, we must try to…
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Kasich emerging as the main NH challenger to Trump
Ohio Governor’s surge is terrible news for Marco Rubio Against the general consensus, and betting markets that pointed first towards Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, John Kasich is emerging as the biggest challenger to Donald Trump in the key New Hampshire primary. The latest poll puts him on 20%, seven points down on long-term leader…
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As Donald Trump goes favourite, its time to take him on
Has Trump picked a fight with the wrong man? After a dramatic, divisive week in the race for the Republican Nomination, there’s no question which candidate has the greatest momentum on Betfair markets. With the race looking ever likelier to be a three-cornered scrap, Donald Trump was matched last night at a new low of…
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New position: Lay back Sanders, leave risk free bet
One new bet to advise – as per my advice on Twitter from this morning. So, what I’m doing here is taking all the risk out of the Bernie Sanders bet advised last week, when his odds were 24. By selling or laying back the 15 unit stake, no money can be lost on the…
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Is it time to think the unthinkable?
With each day, Trump v Sanders looks likelier If the betting markets are any guide, the race for the Presidency looks like a six-runner race. Five if, like me, you think Jeb Bush is a no-hoper. Three of those five would represent a seismic shock to U.S. politics, almost unimaginable until recently. Significantly, the campaigns…