Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at the beginning of March that, historically, have proved a decisive moment, the term has been repeatedly used during this cycle and is no less apt for these final six races.
For months it seemed that June 7th would be a decisive moment in the Republican race, as the <strong>#NeverTrump</strong> movement sought to keep Donald Trump short of the 1237 delegates required for victory. However that race ended a month ago when his rivals withdrew and the magic number has already been passed.
Moreover, any lingering possibility of an establishment plot to stop him at the convention disappeared this week, with the belated endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan – once backed below 20.0 in expectation of a brokered convention. Now the GOP will hope to unite, and that voters will forget the insults and character assassinations of their anarchic race.
All of those markets regarding the Republicans and the prospect of a brokered convention are now effectively done, awaiting settlement during the convention. Instead, focus has shifted to identifying Trump’s Vice Presidential pick. Here, former Speaker Newt Gingrich is strong favourite, rated 33% likely at 3.0.
Trump, meanwhile, remains the weakest presidential candidate since the advent of Betfair. Despite an improved polling position, Trump is still rated only 23% likely to be the Next President at odds of 4.3.
However while the GOP candidate remains weak, his opponents are doing their best to endanger their strong position. In a bizarre turnaround, it is now the Democrat convention that threatens to generate damaging headlines and sow division, at precisely the moment the party needs to unite ahead of the General Election.