We thought it could never happen again. That no political market could ever compare to the 2016 US election. One where rumours, scandal and media speculation regularly sparked the most dramatic market moves on people who weren’t even running. One where a main candidate’s participation was in doubt right up to the closing stages.
Yet with just over seven weeks until the first round of the French Presidential Election, this race is giving Trump/Clinton a run for it’s money. Indeed, we have just witnessed arguably the most sensational gamble in political betting history.
This time last year, the general consensus was that Alain Juppe would become the next president. The septuagenarian former Prime Minister was trading around [1.5], (equivalent to a 67% chance), even before his UMP party’s nomination process begun.
Then came the first earthquake, as Juppe was eliminated after another massive gamble on an outsider. Francois Fillon swept from odds around 200.0 to claim the nomination and duly traded down to 1.4 (71%) for the main prize. With his political career seemingly over, Juppe drifted on Betfair to the maximum odds of 1000.0, where he was matched for £420.