Electoral College Votes: 29
The Sunshine State probably garners more international attention than any in US elections, particularly since the ‘hanging chads’ debacle in 2000 handed the presidency to George W Bush. With 29 electoral college votes up for grabs and a tight partisan split, it is always pivotal to the result.
It is another state that the Republicans simply have to win to maintain any realistic chance but, theoretically at least, the Democrats could still afford to lose. Obama only beat Romney by 1% in 2012 – compared to 4% nationwide – making it their most vulnerable defence.
This year’s race is particularly hard to predict, given the Trump factor. On one hand the GOP nominee, who owns several famous properties in the state, should thrive amongst the large numbers of older, white voters and thrashed Florida Senator Marco Rubio here in the primaries.
On the other, his toxicity among Hispanic voters could prove costly. If they register in much larger numbers this time – a trend seen in numerous states, presumably in response to Trump – it could decisively change the maths in Clinton’s favour.
Plus whereas Republicans tend to do better among voters of Cuban descent, the emerging news story that Trump violated the US embargo against the Castro regime could be a gamechanger. Rubio is demanding answers and could come under pressure to un-endorse his party’s candidate.