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Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?
A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls,…
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Will Boris Johnson Break The Law Or Is He Bluffing?
This article was first published on 9th September 2019, for betting.betfair.com There is nothing original in noting the similarities between Donald Trump and Boris Johnson and another can be found in the betting. Even before Trump’s inauguration, large bets were placed below odds of 4.0 about him failing to survive that first year. 2019 is…
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Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts
We still don’t know precisely when, but a UK General Election is imminent. William Hill offer a best price of 10/11 about it taking place in October, whereas Paddy Power are best at 15/8 about a November election. That small difference in the date is extremely significant. Indeed, punting on the result before we know the date is fraught…
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Is an October General Election Inevitable?
This article was first published on 3rd September at betting.betfair.com After yet another extraordinary, dramatic day in UK politics, few if any observers are any clearer. Quelle surprise. Protesters almost drown out Johnson speech An October General Election – tipped here last week at 4.6 – crashed into 1.25 after it was announced Boris Johnson…
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Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
This article first appeared on 30th August at casino.org Among the few sages that predicted Donald Trump’s historic betting upset in 2016 was Professor Allan Lichtman. He also predicted that the new president would be impeached and duly wrote a book laying out the case. He now predicts Trump will win again in 2020 unless the Democrats…
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Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit
This piece was first published on 29th August 2019 for betting.betfair.com Having spent all summer on tenterhooks, waiting to learn precisely how Boris Johnson’s government plans to deliver its Brexit promises, British politics finally blew up yesterday and entered a new, highly unpredictable phase. Prorogation exacerbates political divide Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five…
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2020 US Election – Could Donald Trump be replaced on the GOP ticket?
Donald Trump is weakening on Betfair’s 2020 US Election markets. From a low of 1.98 he’s out to 2.24 in the wake of atrocious polls and ever more erratic behaviour. There’s also a minor move against him to be the Republican Nominee, from 1.08 to 1.14. Granted, these are lower odds than the levels I’ve…
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Next Conservative Leader Betting – Who will succeed Boris Johnson?
Some political betting markets never stop. No sooner have we settled a Tory leadership contest and the bookies are betting on who will succeed Boris Johnson. Who knows – with the new PM likely to face a No Confidence vote as soon as parliament emerges from recess, this could be settled within months. That, to be clear, is…
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Interview for Business of Betting Podcast
This was a most enjoyable interview from earlier this year, with Jake Williams for his Business of Betting podcast. We discuss my route into political betting and becoming a professional gambler. Of particular relevance is our conversation regarding the 2020 election and how many extra variables we have to deal with nowadays, such as fake…
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Latest Brexit Betting – Can Anyone Stop No Deal?
We may have a new PM, Cabinet, fear of national meltdown and much talk of urgency, but the fundamentals of British politics haven’t changed. The clock towards a no deal Brexit is ticking, politicians and journalists are locked in discussion about how to prevent it. A good time to update my scenarios piece from last…