• Escalating legal troubles spell bad news for Trump

    Back in April, I explained the unique opportunities to hedge between various different, yet related, markets regarding Donald Trump’s future. While those odds have since shifted a little towards the president’s favour, the angle still offers trading mileage and the most recent signals point towards more drama ahead. A brief explanation of the hedging process…

  • Brexit betting: Looming deadlock will hand momentum to a Peoples Vote

    Over the last few extraordinary weeks, the chances about the following have risen. A ‘hard’, no deal Brexit. An extension of Article 50 beyond next March. A new Tory leader and PM. A constitutional crisis, resulting in a ‘Peoples Vote’ or another general election. Another Scottish independence referendum. Even a realignment of the UK party…

  • Theresa May survives for now but can she last the year?

    After an unforgettable day of political drama, Betfair markets were downgrading the likelihood of Theresa May being imminently forced out of office but her position remains perilous. The Prime Minister is rated 42% likely to leave office this year at odds of 2.4. In our tri-monthly market, July-Sept is trading at 3.5 (28%) down, from…

  • Brexit protest to slash Labour’s Lewisham East majority

    When the Lewisham East By-Election was announced – in light of Labour MP Heidi Alexander quitting to take a job with London Mayor Sadiq Khan – my immediate thoughts were conspiratorial. A mid-term by-election in an ultra safe Labour seat, which overwhelmingly voted Remain, offers the perfect chance to challenge Labour’s pro-Brexit stance and potentially…

  • Back Gove for next Tory leader now as Brexit crisis intensifies

    Today marks the one year anniversary of the General Election and what feels like the last time anything changed in UK politics. The polls are more or less identical, showing a small Conservative lead. The path of Brexit – even the government’s preferred path – is as clear as mud. The Prime Minister remains in…

  • Will there be a snap election in 2018 and what happens if there is?

    Inevitably, the speculation has begun. With Theresa May’s Brexit plan going nowhere as she struggles to square circles between Cabinet, Parliament and country, The Sunday Times reports that Tory MPs are gearing up for a election this autumn. The odds about 2018 have halved in our Year of Next Election market but, at odds of…

  • Five takeaways from the UK local elections

    Last week, I pondered how bad the latest council elections would be for the Tories. The answer is nothing like as bad as experts predicted. Rather than take a mid-term thrashing, they were tied for projected national vote share with Labour, whose 77 gains were way below the widely forecast 200 target. According to BBC…

  • UK Local Elections Betting Preview

    It is more or less standard for governments to struggle in mid-term, as angry voters become motivated to register a protest. That particularly applies once they’ve been elected three times and are in the midst of multiple crises. Against a backdrop of the Windrush scandal, Amber Rudd’s resignation and Cabinet and parliamentary division over Brexit,…

  • How to win money by hedging between Betfair’s Trump specials

    Betfair markets related to Donald Trump’s future are kicking off again as FBI investigations into the US President and his closest allies intensifies. At odds of 1.63, the chance of him serving a full first-term in office has slipped to 61% from around 68%. At yesterday’s low point, it was just 58%. As ever with…

  • Prepare for drama as Mueller endgame nears

    Chaos in the White House may have become an inevitable part of the daily US political diet, but the latest and looming developments seem to suggest a dramatic new – perhaps final – twist in the Donald Trump saga. Bettors following the various Trump Exit Date and 2020 Election markets should be on red alert,…