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Will the Blue Wave sweep a Trump heartland?
Since Donald Trump became President, his Democrat opponents have dominated a spate of special elections, thanks in no small part to a remarkable surge in enthusiasm and turnout. Many of us firmly believe this ‘Blue Wave’ will carry them to a majority in the House of Representatives in November. Tonight, we will get the best…
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Are Trump betting markets underestimating Mueller?
Market sentiment towards Donald Trump is shifting significantly and, perhaps more pertinently, suddenly seems impervious to the relentless scandal and drama associated with this president. Back at the start of November, following indictments against four members of the Trump campaign, our market regarding whether or not he serves a full term in office spiked. At…
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How the Tory leadership race could unfold
If anyone still needs a measure to illustrate the unpredictability of politics in 2018, check out the Next Conservative and Labour Leader markets. Neither has what could be described as a hot favourite and only three candidates are trading at single figure odds. Little wonder perhaps, in light of recent upsets and grassroots uprisings, but…
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Six candidates for next UKIP leader
They may be polling below 2% and be all but wiped out in local government but you just can’t keep UKIP out of the headlines. Albeit for all the wrong reasons. With leader Henry Bolton clinging to power after an overwhelming vote of no confidence and serial resignations, a fourth leadership contest in less than…
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Should Labour be further ahead in the polls?
We may be living through a volatile, unpredictable political era but there is little evidence of it in recent opinion polls. Since last June’s election, they have moved only slightly towards Labour and another snap election would likely produce a very similar result. Such is the inertia that pundits feel compelled to comment on 1%…
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Oprah for President? Six celebrities in contention for 2020
It was inevitable once Donald Trump had changed the game – betting an a US Presidential Election would never be the same again. The fields are no longer merely Republican and Democrat politicians but a wide array of characters from popular culture and business. At this early stage at least, celebrities are the candidates that…
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The Trump ship may finally sink in 2018
In a stark change from the trajectory of recent years, Betfair markets are taking a steadily improving view of Donald Trump’s prospects. From a low point of 43% in the wake of indictments related to the Russia investigation, the US President is now rated 53% likely to survive a full-term in office at odds of…
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Five political markets to follow in 2018
The date of the next UK General Election Whilst political betting is fast becoming a global phenomenon, nothing still quite compares to an election in the country that revolutionised it. Each of the last four years has seen a major domestic poll and our latest General Election involved a wider array of speciality markets than…
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2017 Review: The Year of the Liberal Backlash
For the third straight year, Betfair markets illustrated the new politics. Highly unpredictable, with conventional wisdom in crisis and unprecedented volatility. We have seen an outsider, with no party infrastructure, gatecrash the French presidency. The Democrats won Alabama. And Jeremy Corbyn came within a few constituencies of pulling off the greatest upset in the history…