When asked recently to list the ten greatest political betting markets of all-time, I took a minor liberty in awarding the final spot to this year’s US Elections, pre-empting the biggest ever markets in response to a fascinating and highly unpredictable race.
In truth, with over eight months until the general election, the Republican Nominee market is already a contender in its own right.
Already, we’ve had three short-priced favourites as the field has winnowed from 17 candidates to just six. Polls are all over the place, markets fluctuating dramatically and another potential gamechanger seems to emerge almost every day.
It remains quite possible that, even after the primary process, no clear winner will emerge, forcing what is known as a contested convention. People not even running like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan continue to attract bits and pieces of money in expectation of such a scenario.
The next stage is the South Carolina Primary on Saturday, for which Donald Trump starts overwhelmingly favourite at odds of 1.06.