Two days out from the conclusion of the most incredible election cycle and biggest political betting event in history, the verdict of Betfair punters remains the same as it has ever since the market opened – Hillary Clinton will be the Next US President.
After drifting significantly from 1.2 to 1.44 lastweek, the money is pouring back in for her. She’s now a [1.28] chance, which equates to a 78% likelihood. Donald Trump is trading at 4.7 (21%).
Polls: Trump has momentum but Clinton retains a clear lead
Trump enjoyed plenty of momentum last week, with both national and key state polls narrowing. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Clinton’s lead is down to just 1.8% – roughly a third of the position just a fortnight ago.
Nevertheless, whilst the average is close, her lead is consistent. Since the beginning of October, only the USC/LATimes has recorded Trump in front. That particular survey has consistently looked like a pro-Trump outlier and, without it, Clinton’s average lead would be higher.
However on the flip side her average is raised by polls including larger numbers of undecided/third party voters, in which her lead tends to be bigger. The wider trend suggests this group are likelier to break for Trump and this probably explains the recent tightening. Sceptical Republicans are ‘coming home’.