-
Six famous leadership contest upsets
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st April 2020 For weeks, the markets for Next Labour Leader and Next Deputy Labour Leader have been stagnant. It is assumed that Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner will win, as respective odds of [1.02] and [1.01] illustrate. I’ve no reason to expect an upset but were the…
-
Next Labour Leader – History tells us to beware early signals
The Labour leadership contest has a clear front-runner. Keir Starmer isn’t the first to trade at odds-on to succeed Jeremy Corbyn – Rebecca Long Bailey did so before Christmas, as did Owen Smith back in 2016. However the former Director of Public Prosecutions is the first to hold this position in the betting based on…
-
Where are the Labour heavyweights?
When Labour last had a leadership contest, I successfully predicted Jeremy Corbyn at 24-1 for various reasons. One particularly stood out. The three ‘establishment’ candidates were terrible. In the weeks leading up to Corbyn’s surprise entry, online campaigns were launched to find a better candidate – Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer for example. Neither took…
-
Markets turn against Jeremy Corbyn as Labour’s crisis deepens
Defeat in this week’s by-election could prove a tipping point for controversial leader After another terrible week for Labour, Betfair markets are turning fast against the party and their new leader Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is now rated only 17% likely to lead Labour into the 2020 General Election, at odds of 6.2. On the Betfair Sportsbook,…