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Who would win a snap general election?
In the wake of last week’s predicted Brecon and Radnorshire by-election defeat, the Tory majority is reduced to one and a 2019 General Election is all the rage at a best price of just 8/13 with the best political betting sites. Who would win it? Before answering that, we must consider different contexts. One scenario involves…
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Brecon and Radnorshire By Election Preview
Britain has a new Prime Minister and after Boris Johnson’s radical Cabinet reshuffle, the best political betting sites expect an imminent General Election. At 6/5, only one firm are offering better than evens about an election occurring before the end of 2019. Before that, there is the small matter of the Brecon and Radnorshire By Election –…
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Cabinet reshuffle drives big gamble on a 2019 election
This article first appeared on 25th July 2019, at betting.betfair.com The new Prime Minister Boris Johnson has named his first Cabinet and the signals about how he plans to address the Brexit impasse could hardly have been clearer. The reaction on Betfair was swift, with a 2019 General Election heavily backed, from 2.44 into just…
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Boris Johnson Premiership – What Happens Next?
This article first appeared on 22nd July 2019 at betting.betfair.com Outside of war, it is hard to imagine a worse political crisis to inherit – albeit one that Boris Johnson played a profound part in creating. Three ministers have already resigned rather than sign up to his agenda and dozens more of his MPs are…
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Next Conservative Leader Betting – The top-ten candidates
Will Boris Johnson fall to favourite’s curse? The third substantial gamble in three years is underway on Boris for PM. The first, following David Cameron’s resignation, never even made the starting gate. The second, in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election, became an awful value bet in a matter of hours once it became…
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Next Tory Leader Betting – Dominic Raab is perfectly poised
With the news that Theresa May will imminently announce her departure date, the starting pistol has been fired on the Next Conservative Leader race. In reality, that kicked off before the final results of the 2017 General Election were in and hardened political punters are doubtless managing several positions already. It has been quite a…
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Latest Brexit Betting – General Election goes odds-on
This article was first published on March 29th 2019 Odds of 1.86 reflect an emerging consensus amongst pundits that an election is inevitable, given the political impasse. However that could also reflect that we are no more capable of predicting what on earth will happen next. There are plenty of arguments against it. May departure…
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How the Tory leadership race could unfold
If anyone still needs a measure to illustrate the unpredictability of politics in 2018, check out the Next Conservative and Labour Leader markets. Neither has what could be described as a hot favourite and only three candidates are trading at single figure odds. Little wonder perhaps, in light of recent upsets and grassroots uprisings, but…
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How long can Theresa May survive?
As her government becomes engulfed in one crisis after another, Betfair punters are backing an imminent, or at least relatively swift, exit for Theresa May. At odds of 8.2, the Prime Minister leaving post before the end of the year is still only rated equivalent to a 12% chance but today, January-March 2018 hit its…
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For all his great PR, Boris won’t succeed May
It is good to know there are still some timeless certainties in politics. The Conservative Party will be split over Europe. The media will be obsessed with leadership challenge rumours and Boris Johnson will be doing anything within his power to generate publicity for himself. Ever since the Foreign Secretary dropped his 4,000 word Brexit…