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Newport West By-Election Betting Preview
This article was first published on March 22nd, for gambling.com In this remarkable era for political betting, the word ‘certainty’ should be used with extreme caution. Nevertheless, it is hard to construct an argument for how taking Betway’s 1/6 about Labour winning the Newport West By-election won’t yield a swift 16% profit. Scheduled for April 4th, the by-election…
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Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible
This piece was first published on March 5th, 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier.…
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Four scenarios that could produce a snap general election
This piece was first published on February 28th 2019 for www.casino.org Last month, I explained how Brexit – and the convoluted parliamentary process of delivering it – was generating countless political betting markets. With just 39 days until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, nobody is any clearer how or if it will happen…
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Brexit Update: Labour’s clearer plan could prove significant
This piece was originally published on February 8th, 2019 for betting.betfair.com After months of uncertainty and speculation regarding several different outcomes to Brexit, we can all but rule one out. There will be no second referendum in 2020. As Donald Tusk said before his now infamous criticism of Brexiters without a plan, there is no…
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No Deal Brexit is now rated likelier than ever
Wouldn’t it be nice to have some answers to all the Brexit questions we’ve been asking forever? Will it happen and if so, on time? If not, will there be a second referendum or a snap election? Yesterday’s famous day of amendments in parliament was meant to at least start to resolve them. It didn’t.…
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A 2019 election may be Theresa May’s only option
Once again, we start the week wondering whether it could be Theresa May’s last in office. The PM will present her Plan B – to the plan that lost by a historic 230 votes – to parliament. If weekend reports are accurate, no meaningful changes will be ensure little or no progress. New amendments set…
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What next after Parliament delivers historic defeat to May’s deal?
To nobody’s surprise, the first reading of the Withdrawal Agreement was comprehensively trounced on Tuesday night as Theresa May’s government suffered the worst defeat in parliamentary history. On Wednesday, the process which we’ve been speculating about for months gets underway as the government faces a No Confidence Vote at 13:00. Literally nobody knows where we…
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Latest Brexit Betting – Five Scenarios
The Brexit clock has ticked down 25 days since my last update – leaving just 79 until departure – but the parliamentary process to deliver it smoothly has barely moved forward. Parliament ties May’s hands ahead of probable defeat Thanks to the intervention of controversial Speaker John Bercow, this week’s parliamentary drama merely confirmed what…
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Theresa May Exit Betting – Three Scenarios
She has become a great survivor, defying political gravity for the last 18 months. Few believed Theresa May could maintain her position for long after losing her majority at the 2017 election and the PM has been regarded as on the brink ever since. The best political betting sites expect the saga will finally end in 2019,…
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How to cash in on the Brexit betting bonanza
If Betfair markets are any indication of how likely the U.K. is of leaving the European Union on time, then that prospect looks to be fading fast. This follows a truly remarkable couple of days in in parliament which now leaves the U.K in a state scratching their head on when Brexit will actually happen. What…