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The tide is turning against Donald Trump
After two years of the unlikeliest front-line political candidate in history repeatedly defying conventional wisdom, expert opinion and betting markets, it is tempting to tire of asking the question. Nevertheless it may be more pertinent than ever. The Trump Impeachment Saga is escalating. In the wake of the latest revelations in the Trump Russia scandal,…
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Gamblers are obsessed with the Trump Impeachment Saga
When it all began nearly two years ago, we all knew it would be entertaining. What we didn’t realize was that entertainment would ultimately trump politics, and the daily business of the leader of the free world would become the first global soap opera. The plot-lines are better than anything the writers of House of…
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Will Donald Trump be forced out early?
Everything about his unique campaign suggested the Trump presidency would not be a conventional one, and so it has proved. A mere 121 days in, Betfair punters are backing him to leave before the end of his first term. Normally at this stage of the election cycle, betting on US politics would be focused on…
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Will Russia scandal destroy Trump’s presidency?
It isn’t everyday that one pities a man whose job is to head the FBI, but surely nobody could envy the political tightrope James Comey has walked these past 18 months and counting. In an ever more partisan environment where both sides seem intent on nothing less than the total destruction of their opponents, pleasing…
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Political betting goes global after record year
Whatever one thinks of Brexit, Donald Trump and the wave of anti-establishment populism sweeping the Western world, we should all be able to agree that politics became a lot more interesting and unpredictable in 2016. The combination of drama, unique characters and the touchstone issues in play helped justify predictions of becoming the biggest ever…
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Trump backed for early exit as Russia allegations persist
If you thought 2016 was a freak political year, ahead of a return to business as usual, think again. Next week, the unlikeliest President in US history will take office and Donald Trump shows no sign of evolving into anything like we’ve come to expect in a national leader. It is impossible to understate the…
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Romney must be opposed at short odds
There are many things that we should have learned about Donald Trump over the past 18 months – most of all that he routinely breaks political convention and is unpredictable. Which is why playing Betfair’s Next Secretary of State market is both exciting and fraught with danger. Consider the last two incumbents – John Kerry and Hillary…
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How electoral systems keep fooling betting markets
The US Election votes are still being counted but with each day that passes, this result looks ever more like the greatest electoral anomaly in living memory. Hillary Clinton is on course to win by the popular vote by around 2M votes, yet suffer a resounding 306-232 defeat in the electoral college. This isn’t an excuse. I argued many times…
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5 reasons why I’m still all in on Clinton
When I was first asked my prediction to be the Next US President back in July 2015, the answer needed no hesitation – Hillary Rodham Clinton. She was favourite on Betfair’s market back then and, despite a rollercoaster ride over the next 16 months including the constant threat of indictment, has never surrendered that position.…
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US Election Betting Portfolio Update
Trading inevitably involves navigating peaks and troughs in the market. Timing is pivotal to success. Whilst it has been profitable so far and I remain extremely confident about the outcome, on the latter point, I can’t say I’ve played this election cycle well. In the primaries my cover bets on Trump were terribly timed, probably…