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Traders can still win big from opposing Trump
As illustrated in previous portfolios, my betting plans are not necessarily based on taking a definitive prediction about the result or, in some cases, even taking much of a risk. Rather, the game is to set up a position that is predicted to improve on betting markets over time. Even better, hedge multiple markets against…
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Is 2016 the year for a minor party breakthrough?
From the moment 17 Republican candidates headed by a reality TV star kickstarted the process, the 2016 election cycle has been unique and unpredictable. With fewer than 80 days remaining, markets point to a one-sided contest yet both adjectives still apply. Betfair punters will be used to the straight-up, binary choice available in the three…
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The electoral map looks devastating for Trump
Four years ago, at this stage of the 2012 presidential cycle, there was a stark difference between clear betting market signals and a commentariat loathe to jump off the fence. Whereas pundits were saying en masse that the race was ‘too close to call’, Betfair punters consistently made Barack Obama the odds-on favourite to beat…
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5 reasons why Brexit doesn’t mean Donald Trump will win
The decision of UK voters to quit the European Union did not just send shockwaves through British politics. The world was watching, seeking to understand what it may signify for their own futures. Indeed, it was widely seen as the latest demonstration of an anti-establishment trend sweeping across the Western world. In particular, as I’ve…
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Is it time to take #RecallTrump seriously?
As a gambler, one must always be mindful of talking up your own position. Of becoming too convinced by your own opinion that you can’t see the wood for the trees. I’ve been wrestling with this position for months, regarding the unprecedented, bizarre and increasingly ridiculous candidacy of Donald Trump. My longstanding opposition to Trump…
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7 reasons why Donald Trump won’t win
The idea that a celebrity, reality TV star could become US President always seemed faintly ridiculous – until Donald Trump defied the commentariat and betting odds to win the Republican nomination. Betfair punters take a similarly dim view about his general election chances, rating him only 22% likely to beat Hillary Clinton at odds of…
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Scrutiny will eventually destroy Donald Trump
Sceptics of my longstanding, confident prediction that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in November often ask the same question – “He’s got this far despite you all writing him off, so why can’t Trump prove you all wrong again?”. The question is unarguably valid. Like so many others, I simply couldn’t envisage Trump lasting…
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Can Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?
The predictive qualities of political betting markets have become an ever more salient talking point in recent years, based on a near perfect record in big elections. Since the inception of Betfair in 2001, the favourite from 100 days out to be Next President or party to win the most seats went on to win…
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Why the VP picks could matter more this time
The first stage of the US Presidential Election betting cycle is finally complete. With Donald Trump and Mike Pence confirmed as the Republican ticket last week in Cleveland, Hillary Clinton named Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate last night, ahead of the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia. While these veepstakes are always a hot…
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Donald Trump’s odds shorten again
The most unconventional and unlikely presidential candidate in US history just hit his highest rating yet in the race for the White House. In finally securing the Republican nomination, Donald Trump killed the hopes of numerous detractors and ended one of the most exciting and dramatic races in the history of political betting. In response,…