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US Election – Biden and Sanders lead Democrat nominee list
This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 20th 2020 When the race to become Democrat Nominee began, a prevailing narrative swiftly emerged. Obsessed with diversity, the base would prefer a woman or person of colour. Ticking both boxes, Kamala Harris was the early favourite in the politics betting markets. A fortnight from the start of the…
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2020 US Election – Bernie Sanders gaining market momentum
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 12th January With primary season less than a month away, the 2020 US Election is underway in earnest, There have of course been numerous Democrat debates already but none carries anything like the importance of Tuesday’s six-way debate in Iowa, which will host the opening caucuses on February…
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Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
This article first appeared on 30th August at casino.org Among the few sages that predicted Donald Trump’s historic betting upset in 2016 was Professor Allan Lichtman. He also predicted that the new president would be impeached and duly wrote a book laying out the case. He now predicts Trump will win again in 2020 unless the Democrats…
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2020 US Election and Democratic Nominee Betting and Analysis
This article was first published on 17th July, for betting.betfair.com It has been three weeks since the first of the Democrat TV debates, as they search for their nominee for the 2020 US Presidential Election. During that short window, the betting has changed dramatically. Harris now favourite as Biden slips When former Vice President Joe…
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Beto O’Rourke is the star that Democrats need
Analysing the mid-terms, I argued that Donald Trump will not be re-elected and that there was a good chance he wouldn’t even be on the ballot. Today let’s consider who will take him, or a Republican replacement, on in the 2020 US Presidential Election. Huge field expected for Democrat primary 2020 will see a Democrat…
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Why I’m backing Tom Perez for VP
The art of betting on politics, (or pretty much anything for that matter), is being able to cut through the froth. And there seems to be more froth around than usual this cycle. Granted, some of that froth turned out to be serious – like a reality TV star with no political experience, ground game…
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Clinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?
Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at the beginning of March that, historically, have proved a decisive moment, the term has been repeatedly used during this cycle and…