The 2016 US Election remains the most exciting heat in the history of political betting and the fun has barely started. Mid-March is traditionally the time when the primary races become predictable, with both parties broadly settled on their nominees. This time is completely different.
Even the Democrat side, where the market rates Hillary Clinton overwhelming favourite at odds of [1.11] for the nomination, equating to an 90% probability, is throwing up massive shocks. On Tuesday, Clinton traded down to 1.03 before losing the Michigan Primary.
Although Bernie Sanders needs a miracle to overhaul her for the nomination – due to thumping defeats in the South and Clinton’s game-changing advantage in super-delegates – the veteran socialist looks set to continue to pick up plenty more wins in primaries.
For all the shock wins and novelty value of a Sanders candidacy, though, the Democrats can’t really compete for headline coverage with their Republican opponents, who seem hell-bent on a civil war that could last through the summer and beyond. So long as Donald Trump stays on course for the nomination, hostilities are unlikely to cease.