Trading inevitably involves navigating peaks and troughs in the market. Timing is pivotal to success.
Whilst it has been profitable so far and I remain extremely confident about the outcome, on the latter point, I can’t say I’ve played this election cycle well. In the primaries my cover bets on Trump were terribly timed, probably halving the profit.
So too, with hindsight, I wish I’d covered against Clinton when she was around 1.2 last week before the FBI news broke. Had I done so, my bank would be bigger going into these closing stages when liquidity is great and so many good bets are appearing.
The reason I didn’t is the same reason I’m not covering now. Then I felt even 1.2 understated her chance and so too does 1.35 now. I simply cannot see a realistic path to Trump getting 270 unless the polls are systemically wrong. I don’t believe they are and am struck by this recent NYT analysis that suggests any ‘missing’ white voters are actually likelier to be Democrat. The reverse theory has been my sole nagging doubt.
Moreover, the handicap odds have always under-stated Clinton. As I wrote earlier this week, these markets offer outstanding value.
If Clinton wins – and I’m very confident – she will likely win the most valuable swing states. For example Florida’s 29 votes – and the market is moving her way as early voting progresses – would take her well in excess of 300 electoral college votes.
Moreover, I believe we are likelier to see surprise results in the states where Trump is strong favourite – Arizona, Utah – than in the ones where he needs to pull off a big upset like Pennsylvania, or Michigan. (Nevertheless these last two states remain the best way of covering, if that is your preference). Even in the states which I expect Trump to win – Ohio, Iowa – his amateurish ground game is too much of a worry to bet at odds-on.
My current electoral college prediction is either 322 or 323 – depending on Maine CD2, which I’m loathe to call. Arizona would take us up to 333/334 and I’m happy to keep that on side. New Latino registration is stronger here than anywhere else in the country.
Regarding updates, the best place to follow me is on Twitter. The odds are moving so fast and I’m not always in a position to blog immediately. When I do, it appears on there immediately.
Sometimes it isn’t worth posting specific new bets because the odds will disappear. For example, I’ve backed Clinton to win Nevada at 1.44 – for 30 units – but she’s mostly been shorter since. That bet was strongly implied in my recent piece regarding side markets but I haven’t specifically advised a stake.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) November 4, 2016
If you want specific advice, I strongly recommend contacting me on Twitter as that is checked regularly so long as I’m online. The current profit/loss figures are listed below.
OVERALL POSITION AFTER ELECTORAL COLLEGE BETS
Trump President -561 units
Clinton 270 – 293: +75 units
Clinton 294 – 306: +110 units
Clinton 307 – 318: +165 units
Clinton 319 – 329: +242 units
Clinton 330 – 359: +392 units
Clinton 360 or more: +242 units
**I also have 50 units @ 3.0 on 30 or more Democrat states won. It could fall into either 330-359 or 360 plus, depending on the states in question.