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SC reflections: The state of play after wins for Trump and Clinton
From a betting perspective, the latest round produced a decent night. One winner, one loser from two small advised bets, yielding a small 2.2 units overall profit. My predictions were pretty close to the mark. Longer-term, a mixture of disappointment that long-range prediction Ted Cruz looks less likely than any point since the start of…
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New bets, SC and NV predictions
Forgive the lateness of these updates – I am in the UK on family business before flying back to Las Vegas tomorrow. Hopefully I’ll be joining a fellow British political gambler for an all-night session, trading the GOP South Carolina Primary and Democrat Nevada Caucus – and we plan to go live on Periscope. Follow…
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Interview on RT America’s “Watching the Hawks”
This was a most enjoyable interview, for the excellent show :”Watching the Hawks” on RT America. Here, I discuss the scale of betting on the 2016 US Election, along with the Democrat and Republican races with Tyler Ventura and Tabetha Wallace.
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Rubio all the rage after Trump supporters fail to turn up
Yet again, opinion polls have been proved spectacularly wrong in a major political betting event. Yet again, odds-on backers were taught a lesson about trying to buy money in US primary elections. Monday’s Iowa Caucuses turned the Republican Nomination race on it’s head and, after a photo-finish, set the Democrat race up for a fascinating…
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Betting markets still favour Clinton in Iowa
As the traditional opening leg of the nomination process, the Iowa caucuses are always a big, worldwide media story. Particularly so in the United Kingdom, and not just because of our ‘special relationship’ with the USA. Britain is a big political market and also home to the world’s most sophisticated betting industry – even more…
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New bets: Why I’m switching away from Clinton, for now
With Iowa too close to call, there’s no short-term betting mileage in our earlier bet In order to secure a profit over the long-term – and my US election portfolio has nine months left to run – one needs to switch positions frequently, banking profits where possible, and also accepting a small lose when prudent. These…
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Iowa flip-flop shows perils and potential of primaries betting
After another bad week for one-time runaway Iowa Caucus favourite Ted Cruz, the betting flip-flop is complete. Donald Trump is now down to 1.6, rated a 63% chance to win the opening stage of the Republican primary process. In the Democrat race, Hillary Clinton is forecast to withstand the Bernie Sanders surge at odds of…
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The 10 best political betting heats of all-time
As the global betting industry evolves, ever more diverse markets are coming on stream, involving subject matters worlds apart from the racetrack, roulette wheel or football stadium. To some, politics is a matter of life or death. To others, its a golden opportunity to make money from predicting elections, leadership contests or even which currency…
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New position: Lay back Sanders, leave risk free bet
One new bet to advise – as per my advice on Twitter from this morning. So, what I’m doing here is taking all the risk out of the Bernie Sanders bet advised last week, when his odds were 24. By selling or laying back the 15 unit stake, no money can be lost on the…
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New position: Simple maths make Bernie a great trade
New Hampshire progress means Sanders’ current odds are all wrong Two essential components of successful gambling, (trading is a more accurate term), are timing and the ability to do basic maths. Get those two things right and one need not necessarily predict winners. That is the logic behind my latest position on the U.S. Election,…