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SC Primary: Race for places behind Trump is pivotal
When asked recently to list the ten greatest political betting markets of all-time, I took a minor liberty in awarding the final spot to this year’s US Elections, pre-empting the biggest ever markets in response to a fascinating and highly unpredictable race. In truth, with over eight months until the general election, the Republican Nominee…
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New bet as key SC endorsements offer Rubio big momentum
As detailed in my latest piece for Politico, the big recent story in betting markets was the dramatic rise and fall of Marco Rubio – based on what amounts, in effect, to very little. First the markets fell in love with Rubio after his much-vaunted third place in Iowa. Then they started dumping him, literally…
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Interview on RT America’s “Watching the Hawks”
This was a most enjoyable interview, for the excellent show :”Watching the Hawks” on RT America. Here, I discuss the scale of betting on the 2016 US Election, along with the Democrat and Republican races with Tyler Ventura and Tabetha Wallace.
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Politico Series Part 3: Looking ahead to New Hampshire
This piece was written a few days before the New Hampshire Primary. Looking back at some successful bets and my experiences in Iowa. I update market movements and developments in the race. However it must be said, I didn’t see Donald Trump winning NH by anything like his eventual margin! Click here to read the…
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Politico series part 2: Looking ahead to Iowa
An Election Gambler Predicts Iowa This piece, from January 2016, details my updated thoughts, bets and analysis in the run-up to the Iowa Caucuses. At the time, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump threatened to derail my long-term betting plan on Ted Cruz. Happily I stuck to my guns and opposed Trump once he had…
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Politico series part 1: Predicting the race ahead!
Why I’ve got money on Cruz instead of Trump. Throughout my US Election Tour, I’m writing a series for Politico Magazine, detailing and updating my positions, plus analysing the trajectory of the race. First, from December, here’s my original wide-ranging predictions for 2016, along with some background to the concept of political betting, my personal…
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Two new bets, plus trading tips: How caution and hedging make for good strategy.
On this huge day in the US election cycle, I make absolutely no apology for keeping stakes small and literally hedging my bets. Anything less would be irresponsible, given the treacherous difficulty in predicting this New Hampshire Primary. The Republican side at least – where the interesting betting lies. I’m quite sure that the market…
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GOPDebate verdict: Rubio the latest victim of GOP cage fight
I’ve observed before how the size and brutal nature of the race to be GOP nominee is doing the party no favours, damaging one candidate after another. In the final debate before Tuesday’s pivotal New Hampshire Primary, the last undamaged figure took a beating. My main sentiment this morning is relief that I’ve only staked…
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Will a late Rubio surge deny Trump again?
Following yesterday’s advised bet on Twitter to back Marco Rubio to win New Hampshire, here’s a detailed explanation. New bet: 4 units on @marcorubio to win New Hampshire @ 4.0 (3 to 1). Will blog asap, may add more in coming days. — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 5, 2016 The political betting story of this…
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Iowa Caucuses night on ABC – WOI TV
Normally on this night, I would have been sat at home in the UK, up through the night, watching the results on TV whilst trading the race odds in-running. This time around, my first election night in the USA, I was invited to discuss political betting on the live results show of ABC’s Iowa affiliate…