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New bet: Bank a small profit on Cruz, while leaving big profits available
Time to take the risk out of GOP positions and guarantee a small profit on Cruz In a long election with many twists and turns – plenty of which have already occured before the primaries have even started – the key to making money is timing. As candidates rise and fall, we must try to…
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As Donald Trump goes favourite, its time to take him on
Has Trump picked a fight with the wrong man? After a dramatic, divisive week in the race for the Republican Nomination, there’s no question which candidate has the greatest momentum on Betfair markets. With the race looking ever likelier to be a three-cornered scrap, Donald Trump was matched last night at a new low of…
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Is it time to think the unthinkable?
With each day, Trump v Sanders looks likelier If the betting markets are any guide, the race for the Presidency looks like a six-runner race. Five if, like me, you think Jeb Bush is a no-hoper. Three of those five would represent a seismic shock to U.S. politics, almost unimaginable until recently. Significantly, the campaigns…
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New position: Simple maths make Bernie a great trade
New Hampshire progress means Sanders’ current odds are all wrong Two essential components of successful gambling, (trading is a more accurate term), are timing and the ability to do basic maths. Get those two things right and one need not necessarily predict winners. That is the logic behind my latest position on the U.S. Election,…
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How and why New Hampshire could shape the election
At the beginning of every US Presidential Election year, there is one pressing task – predict the New Hampshire Primary Why? Not because it is the first contest of the nomination schedule – that honour goes to the Iowa Caucus, one week earlier on February 1st. Nor because this state contributes lots of delegates –…
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Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion
Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassroots opinion Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences…
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Six reasons why the time has come to back Hillary Clinton
Democrat front-runner’s odds look set to shorten throughout 2016 From the first moment I was asked to predict the winner of the 2016 US Presidential Election, my answer has been consistent – Hillary Rodham Clinton. However given her prohibitively short odds, I have yet to place a penny on her. Until now. In my view,…
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The big debate question: Has Donald Trump finally met his match?
Trump may alienate supporters if attacking Cruz too hard It almost goes without saying that the latest debate for The Election Like No Other will again produce a record TV audience. Donald Trump will legitimately claim credit for that but, happily, CNN have refused to bow to his hilarious demand for a $5M appearance fee. Why…
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Crowded, brutal New Hampshire race could hurt Rubio and the GOP mainstream
Christie surge is thwarting the favourite’s momentum At the end of a dramatic week in which Donald Trump’s ‘ban all Muslims from the USA’ created a worldwide storm and threatens to plunge his party into crisis , the race for the Republican Nomination is shaking up. Today’s big news is great news for followers of this blog’s…
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Why I’m not taking the Ted Cruz profit just yet
Texas Senator has momentum and remains under-priced on betting markets If you’re following my portfolio of bets on the US elections, you may be wondering why there’s been no new bets advised since backing Ted Cruz for the second time to be the Republican Nominee, four weeks ago. In short, I’m biding my time, very…