Tag: Theresa May

  • How the Tory leadership race could unfold

    How the Tory leadership race could unfold

    If anyone still needs a measure to illustrate the unpredictability of politics in 2018, check out the Next Conservative and Labour Leader markets. Neither has what could be described as a hot favourite and only three candidates are trading at single figure odds. Little wonder perhaps, in light of recent upsets and grassroots uprisings, but…

  • Should Labour be further ahead in the polls?

    Should Labour be further ahead in the polls?

    We may be living through a volatile, unpredictable political era but there is little evidence of it in recent opinion polls. Since last June’s election, they have moved only slightly towards Labour and another snap election would likely produce a very similar result. Such is the inertia that pundits feel compelled to comment on 1%…

  • Five political markets to follow in 2018

    Five political markets to follow in 2018

    The date of the next UK General Election Whilst political betting is fast becoming a global phenomenon, nothing still quite compares to an election in the country that revolutionised it. Each of the last four years has seen a major domestic poll and our latest General Election involved a wider array of speciality markets than…

  • 2017 Review: The Year of the Liberal Backlash

    2017 Review: The Year of the Liberal Backlash

    For the third straight year, Betfair markets illustrated the new politics. Highly unpredictable, with conventional wisdom in crisis and unprecedented volatility. We have seen an outsider, with no party infrastructure, gatecrash the French presidency. The Democrats won Alabama. And Jeremy Corbyn came within a few constituencies of pulling off the greatest upset in the history…

  • How long can Theresa May survive?

    How long can Theresa May survive?

    As her government becomes engulfed in one crisis after another, Betfair punters are backing an imminent, or at least relatively swift, exit for Theresa May. At odds of 8.2, the Prime Minister leaving post before the end of the year is still only rated equivalent to a 12% chance but today, January-March 2018 hit its…

  • For all his great PR, Boris won’t succeed May

    For all his great PR, Boris won’t succeed May

    It is good to know there are still some timeless certainties in politics. The Conservative Party will be split over Europe. The media will be obsessed with leadership challenge rumours and Boris Johnson will be doing anything within his power to generate publicity for himself. Ever since the Foreign Secretary dropped his 4,000 word Brexit…

  • Five reasons to back Labour for the next election

    Five reasons to back Labour for the next election

    After 18 months of relentless political drama, generating the biggest ever betting markets in our medium, the summer has felt slightly weird. Sure, there are ongoing Brexit negotiations, rumours of Tory leadership bids and daily Donald Trump developments but, on the political betting front, it has been relatively quiet. That’s because long-term markets will always…

  • Five ways conventional wisdom has broken down

    Five ways conventional wisdom has broken down

    As recently as 2014, political betting was arguably the most reliable market for favourite-backers. Suddenly it’s become a haven for historic upsets. Anyone who thought 2016 was a freak year got a rude awakening last month. Based on their respective positions at the start of each campaign, Labour denying a Conservative majority was a bigger…

  • Next Tory Leader: The top five candidates rated

    Next Tory Leader: The top five candidates rated

    Whichever way one looks at it, Theresa May’s days as Prime Minister are numbered. Perhaps it will be soon, as furious Tory MPs blame her for the shocking election result. Perhaps she can survive for a few years, restoring her reputation by skilfully managing an impossibly split Commons and successfully negotiating Brexit. But few ever…

  • Where next for the troubled Tories?

    Where next for the troubled Tories?

    If the markets are to believed, the uncertainty and speculation will soon be over. The Next Government is rated 92% likely to be a Conservative Minority with Theresa May a 94% chance to be Prime Minister of it. Whether, after five massive political betting upsets in the space of two years, you regard betting markets…