Ochil and South Perthshire
This is another constituency that voted for different parties in the last three general elections – the Tories came from third last time, aided by the Labour vote falling 8%. This share probably correlates with Unionist fears of independence and a 40% Leave vote. The required 3% swing is within SNP range on national estimates but much depends on the priorities and tactics of Labour’s remaining 20% share.
Angus was an SNP-CON marginal even in the days when Labour dominated Scotland but it took the recent constitutional earthquakes to finally turn it blue in 2017. The 16% swing surely owed much to Brexit – the 48% Leave vote is well above the Scottish average. That suggests regaining it on a 3.5 swing will be tough but the SNP hold both Holyrood seats and achieved 54% in 2015.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
The second largest constituency in the country has a long Liberal tradition, only ever switching once to the SNP at their 2015 peak. This is one of Scotland’s few Leave seats but Brexit didn’t appear particularly influential in 2017 as the Tories only scored 22%, albeit from a very low base. Any boost from having a Scot as Lib Dem leader should be enough to retain it.
This was a stunning gain for the Tories last time, deposing the SNP’s leader in Westminster Angus Robertson. Given that 50% voted for Leave in the referendum here, much higher than the Scottish average, Douglas Ross will be confident of another term with the Tory vote holding up well in polls.
Yet another seat that voted Labour in 2010, SNP in 2015 and Conservative in 2017, with Paul Masterson winning from third place on a 14% swing. Results in the referendum were both extremely Remain (75%) and Unionist (63%). Very hard to call, with the balance of power lying among Labour’s declining 27% share.