Following yesterday’s advised bet on Twitter to back Marco Rubio to win New Hampshire, here’s a detailed explanation.
New bet: 4 units on @marcorubio to win New Hampshire @ 4.0 (3 to 1). Will blog asap, may add more in coming days.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 5, 2016
The political betting story of this past week has concerned Marco-mentum and the dramatic transformation of the race to be the Republican Nominee.
While an intriguing Democrat contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders has remained static in betting terms, money has poured in for Marco Rubio on the GOP side. The Florida Senator’s odds have shrunk from 3.5 to 1.75 for the nomination, 8.4 to 3.9 to become Next President. In percentage terms, he is now rated the highest of any Republican in this election to date, at 57 and 26% respectively.
Yet in order to achieve those goals, he will either need to upset the odds in Tuesday’s pivotal New Hampshire Primary, or defy a famous long-standing trend in U.S. politics. For no Republican nominee in the modern era failed to win either Iowa or New Hampshire and, having only finished third in the former last Monday, the current market rates him only 25% likely to win the latter, at odds of 4.0.