The Political Gambler

The safest bet is the 2022 option. Why? Because generally after a leader stands down, they stay in post throughout the subsequent leadership contest. That could take three months.

I do believe that perpetual crisis is upon us, and find it hard to believe it won’t affect those Tory voters. They are overwhelmingly elderly and therefore on fixed incomes. Tory policies kicking the poor, or students, don’t directly affect them. Inflation, especially energy prices and council tax, will.

This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 15th September 2021 Back in July, I added a new position to an ever expanding portfolio regarding Boris Johnson’s exit date. This was prior to all manner of drama. Afghanistan chaos. Tax rises. Labour’s first poll lead of 2021. To my great surprise, the betting has barely moved.…

This article first appeared at betting.betfair on 9th June 2021 It is often said that Leader of the Opposition is the worst job in politics, as Keir Starmer is rapidly discovering. Not only are Labour way behind in national polls but their leader’s approval ratings are on the floor. Check these latest numbers from Ipsos-Mori.…

This article first appeared on 12th May 2021 at betting.betfair.com Early Friday morning, I received a text from a friend. “Oh Dear. Labour have died.” At that stage, their catastrophic defeat in the Hartlepool by-election was the only story in town. 24 hours later, after various Mayoral gains, improvements and their best result in Wales…

“The Covid contracts scandal simply hasn’t cut through or moved the needle. The opposition’s best hope is that something else will, and start an avalanche.”

This is one of the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats that Labour held amid their 2019 disaster, and therefore more indicative of the national picture than London or Scotland. Defeat would be catastrophic for Keir Starmer.

This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st March We daren’t use the word ‘certainty’ lightly in politics nowadays but the Betfair market signals pretty much imply that is the case in the race for Next London Mayor. Sadiq Khan is up for re-election in May and is rated 96% likely at odds of just…

“One profound difference with 2016 was the unity. Four years ago the DNC proceedings began with disaster. Leaks from a Russian hack were released to great online fanfare, revealing the party establishment’s preference and bias towards Clinton over Bernie Sanders.”

Rebecca Long Bailey has key backing from the Left POSITIVE: During Jeremy Corbyn’s four years as Labour leader, the Left of the party assumed control of much of the internal machinery – the National Executive Committee, for instance – prompting a narrative that his allies are now in total control. If that is so, Rebecca…

What a difference a few months can make in politics. When Boris Johnson became Tory leader back in July, bookies were taking bets on him being the shortest-lived PM in history. Even 2020 seemed a long way off. Having secured the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher, it’s now plausible he could become the longest serving.…

At this stage of the last general election, we pundits were in unanimous agreement that Theresa May would win a majority. My predictions were very much at the lower end of those estimates yet still proved miles off, as Labour pulled off one of the most remarkable upsets in the history of political betting. Don’t…

This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 21st October 2019 In keeping with the general rule of Brexit, the facts changed whilst writing my last piece on Friday. The Letwin Amendment duly obliterated the government’s plan for a straight vote on their Brexit deal and consequently, ‘Super Saturday’ didn’t quite live up to its billing.…

This piece was first published on 30th April 2019. The first of two elections with the potential to blow up British politics takes place on Thursday. Unlike the European Elections which everybody expects to happen at the end of the month, winning candidates will definitely serve their local councils. Tories set for a catastrophic month…

After an unforgettable day of political drama, Betfair markets were downgrading the likelihood of Theresa May being imminently forced out of office but her position remains perilous. The Prime Minister is rated 42% likely to leave office this year at odds of 2.4. In our tri-monthly market, July-Sept is trading at 3.5 (28%) down, from…

Today marks the one year anniversary of the General Election and what feels like the last time anything changed in UK politics. The polls are more or less identical, showing a small Conservative lead. The path of Brexit – even the government’s preferred path – is as clear as mud. The Prime Minister remains in…

Last week, I pondered how bad the latest council elections would be for the Tories. The answer is nothing like as bad as experts predicted. Rather than take a mid-term thrashing, they were tied for projected national vote share with Labour, whose 77 gains were way below the widely forecast 200 target. According to BBC…

After weeks of overtly attempting to destabilise his boss and the media saturation that he knew it would generate, Boris Johnson has resumed favouritism to be the Next Tory Leader. However at 6.4, equivalent to a 15% chance, this market move carries nothing like the optimism that forced his odds down to 2.66 (37%) during…

One week from polling day, what exactly is the state of play? Pretty much whenever the same question was asked during the 2015 campaign, the same answer came forth – dead-heat. When it turned out to be completely wrong, pollsters that largely agreed on a daily basis were an easy scapegoat. That cannot be said…

So you want to bet on Labour. You’ve seen their polls rise throughout their campaign and believe they have momentum. Jeremy Corbyn has easily surpassed low media expectations, while Theresa May’s ‘strong and stable’ brand has nosedived during the campaign. Moreover, you’ve seen with Brexit and Donald Trump that the media and long-range betting market…

Arguably the very best betting value in this election is to be found in the constituency betting. The UK is in the middle of a dramatic realignment in terms of party affiliation, with significant regional and demographic variations. I’ve selected 50 of the most interesting and competitive races, analysing each and making a prediction. Throughout…

For the benefit of younger readers, to whom Michael Portillo is a charming, urbane character with a penchance for trains, this title requires explanation. It wasn’t always this way. 20 years ago, #sadmanonatrain was a toxic figure in a deeply unpopular Tory government. His 1997 defeat to Stephen Twigg was later voted the public’s third…

1) Theresa May is heading for a record-breaking win Even before Thursday’s local elections, few could honestly envisage anything other than a Conservative majority. After confirmation of their 558 gains – a remarkable tally for a party governing alone – the only realistic question involves the scale. The new favourite on Betfair’s Size of Conservative…

If media narrative is the key to political success, Theresa May just took another big step towards a majority of historic size. Thursday’s speech outside Downing Street, framing this election as her pluckily defending the nation against Jean Claude Juncker and the Brussels bureaucrats, was exactly what the Tory tabloids wanted to hear. It will…

Ever since Theresa May stunned us all by announcing this snap election, political bettors have broadly fallen into two camps. Those of us who regard the Conservatives – especially for Most Seats – as a stone-cold certainty. The best chance to earn 5% or so interest on your money over a few weeks. As my…

England is not Scotland. Apologies for stating the bleeding obvious but the differences should not be forgotten when trying to weigh up the scale of disaster facing Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. We know the similarities and dire narrative. In Scotland, amidst a surge of nationalism in the wake of their independence referendum, Labour were swept…

During the 20th century, political scientists referred to UK Conservatives as the most successful political party in the Western world. Their secret was an ability to move with the times and adapt to a changing electorate. When a core policy became unpopular, they would drop it. While their rivals tore themselves apart over ideology, the…

When looking ahead to the big political betting stories of 2017, I discussed the likelihood of a series of by-elections being triggered by Labour MPs, aimed at destabilising Jeremy Corbyn, or at least having that effect. After a second of his fiercest critics quit this morning, we already have two to look forward to. In…

One week ago, that great British tradition of by-election upsets was upheld. The Lib Dem victory in Richmond Park not only restored their reputation as the ultimate mid-term protest party and by-election specialists, but signaled a potentially big change in our political landscape since Brexit. Tomorrow, we will get another chance to test the new…

In the week when the Conservative Party united in order to usher in a new Prime Minister, their arch enemies seem hell-bent on ensuring Theresa May will face no meaningful opposition in parliament. With their leadership contest up and running, Labour are now committed to a summer of in-fighting that could well destroy the party.…

Political bettors have never had it so good. No sooner have we drawn breath, following the most significant vote in living memory and the biggest market in political betting history, than we are presented with concurrent leadership contests for the two biggest posts in UK politics. The facts we know are literally changing by the…

When the referendum campaign began, I recommended one bet, on a narrow preference for the status quo, with REMAIN getting between 50.01 and 55% of the vote share. Specifically, by a margin of 52-48. On the eve of our most significant vote in living memory, I’m standing by that prediction and making no changes to…