In terms of both opinion polls and sentiment on Betfair markets, the race for the presidency is closing fast. Hillary Clinton remains the strongest favourite at this stage of a US election this century, but a bad couple of weeks has seen her odds drift back to roughly where they were in July, before gaining a big bounce following the Democratic Convention.
The former First Lady is now rated 68% likely to win, at odds of 1.47. Donald Trump has shortened to 3.4, equivalent to a 29% rating. There is still plenty of time for things to change, though, as voters are believed to only begin to take a closer look after Labor Day.
With that benchmark now passed, the media is awash with negative stories about both candidates. The potential remains for either campaign to hit a full-blown crisis should any of them take a turn for the worse, particularly these five.
Will the e-mail scandal derail Clinton with a late bombshell?
Clinton’s improper use of a private e-mail server whilst Secretary of State may be old news but revelations continue to seep out to damaging effect. It is too early to say precisely why her convention bounce has disintegrated but the explanation probably lies here.