Four days ago, Super Tuesday produced one of the most dramatic nights in the history of political betting, with two sub 1.03 chances going down as several results proved much closer than the polls or markets had suggested.
Therefore, it is perhaps no surprise to see short-odds money-buyers a little more reluctant to wade in ahead of tonight’s four Republican contests. Donald Trump is favourite in three of them, but at nothing like those ultra-short levels seen on Super Tuesday. That also reflects a cooling in the front-runners’ wider market ratings over the past week, as attacks on his character, business record and policies have amplified.
In two days since Mitt Romney launched an all-out assault on Trump, he has drifted from 1.3 to 1.54 in the Republican Nominee market, and 3.9 to 5.1 for Next President. That equates to a decline in probability from 77% to 65%, and 26% to 20% respectively.