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Nevada Caucuses Betting Tips: Sanders set to open up big lead as Bloomberg bombs
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Friday February 21st It’s often said that TV debates can’t move the needle anymore and that has largely been the case during several months of the Democrat primaries. Michael Bloomberg’s debut in Nevada, however, just wrecked that theory, at least if impacting betting markets is the criteria. Bloomberg…
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Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit
This piece was first published on 29th August 2019 for betting.betfair.com Having spent all summer on tenterhooks, waiting to learn precisely how Boris Johnson’s government plans to deliver its Brexit promises, British politics finally blew up yesterday and entered a new, highly unpredictable phase. Prorogation exacerbates political divide Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five…
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Interview for Business of Betting Podcast
This was a most enjoyable interview from earlier this year, with Jake Williams for his Business of Betting podcast. We discuss my route into political betting and becoming a professional gambler. Of particular relevance is our conversation regarding the 2020 election and how many extra variables we have to deal with nowadays, such as fake…
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European Elections: Back Change UK for a wipeout
This piece was first published on Monday 13th May – unfortunately these luxury odds on Change UK and Lib Dems performance are no longer available. Three months ago, they were the biggest story in Westminster. A group of high-profile defectors from Labour and the Conservatives, standing for moderation, centrism and cross-party collaboration in an era…
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Michael Gove’s plans are falling into place
This article was first written on 25th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com If anyone was still in doubt that Brexit is, fundamentally, a Conservative Party soap opera, the weekend’s events surely confirmed it. As voices from across the political spectrum talked of ‘national crisis and ‘humiliation’, the Tory civil war intensified. Various ministers linked with looming…
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Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible
This piece was first published on 5th March 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier.…
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Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible
This piece was first published on March 5th, 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier.…
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How will The Independent Group fare?
This article was first published on February 18th 2019, for www.betting.betfair.com It can’t be quite described as another political earthquake, given that it has been the subject of speculation for years and intensely in recent days. Nevertheless, another week in UK politics has started with a bombshell. Seven Labour MPs have quit the party and…
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Four scenarios that could produce a snap general election
This piece was first published on February 28th 2019 for www.casino.org Last month, I explained how Brexit – and the convoluted parliamentary process of delivering it – was generating countless political betting markets. With just 39 days until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, nobody is any clearer how or if it will happen…
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Is politics now inherently unpredictable?
I was recently privileged to join a distinguished panel for the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute, at Cambridge University, discussing the future of politics. In response to the question raised by this title, here’s my essay. Politics has only become uncertain because the rules of the game have changed In order to predict the future…