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Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion
Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassroots opinion Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences…
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Five reasons why Ted Cruz is the best current bet
1) Cruz is well-positioned in the polls for when the field whittles down The picture regarding who will be the Republican Nominee remains as unclear as ever, with 15 candidates still in the race. The crowded field has worked to the advantage of outsiders, whose pitch is that bit more interesting and newsworthy than conventional…
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Next Tory leader: Theresa May looks the biggest threat to Osborne
Anti-immigration speech signals the Home Secretary’s intentions After yesterday’s confident, ambitious speech to his conference, there is no way David Cameron is leaving this job early. If so, that means the betting market to succeed him is going to last until at least 2019. Comparisons with the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown succession a decade ago are…
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In order to become Tory leader, Osborne must defy betting history
No early favourite has ever won a Conservative Party leadership contest Since masterminding a famous election victory, George Osborne has soared in the betting to be the Next Conservative Party leader. From 9.4 (11%) when I tipped him in March, the Chancellor is now the clear 2.8 favourite, rated a 35% chance. However political historians will confirm that…
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7 reasons why Jeb Bush won’t win the Republican Nomination
With an enormous election war chest, winning record and instant name recognition, Jeb Bush has been red-hot favourite on Betfair for the Republican Nomination ever since declaring. Paul Krishnamurty, however, believes his bid is ultimately doomed, for the following seven reasons. 1) Early favourites in recent GOP contests have a terrible record Betting markets have…
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Is Corbyn Labour’s saviour or suicide note?
UK politics enters unchartered territory Wherever one stands on the ideological spectrum, or indeed whether one regards that spectrum to be a distraction from our goal of making money via betting on politics, we should all be able to agree about one simple fact. Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader of the Labour Party has just made…
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Who benefits most from Scott Walker’s exit?
Cruz will last the distance as rivals begin to fall away Slowly but surely, the Republican field is whittling down towards a more manageable number, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker the latest to accept inevitable defeat. Considering he was second favourite for the nomination just a couple of months ago, this is a particularly significant development.…
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Trade on politics, just like the stock market!
Political betting is about a lot more than simply predicting the eventual winner of an election. A wide range of markets are live on betting exchanges such as Betfair throughout the entire race, with odds fluctuating by the second in response to market sentiment. Therefore money can be made simply by predicting the trajectory of an…
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Electoral maths justified Obama’s 2012 odds
One factor behind the excellent predictive record of political betting markets is that, whereas media coverage is driven by headline national polls, the serious gambler will analyse the race on a deeper level. The 2012 election was a classic case in point, with virtually every commentator declaring it ‘too close to call’ even on the night,…
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2012 Election: 3 reasons why Obama will win
The 2012 US Presidential Election was one of my successful political betting markets ever, as I was consistently backing Obama from the 2010 mid-terms onwards. Here for Betfair, in May 2012, I argue he is well-placed to exploit three critical dividing lines. Click here to read the full article