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The Polling Station: Trump Runs Again
What a year it has been in the world of political betting. Hopefully those following us will have profited from Boris Johnson leaving office early (predicted consistently on these pages too).
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2022 Political Betting Preview
A shock defeat in Virginia and close shave in New Jersey demonstrated how hard it will be for Democrats to retain their diverse coalition in government, rather than opposition, and without the toxic name of Donald Trump on the ballot.
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The Six Biggest Betting Heats to Follow in 2022
My view is Johnson will resign around May, after tax, NI and energy price rises contribute towards a disastrous set of local election results.
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German Election Betting: Try this trio of betting angles
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 23rd September 2021 Germany goes to the polls on Sunday, for what looks set to be their most dramatic election for 16 years. Why? Simply, the Angela Merkel era is coming to an end after 16 years and, given her popularity, that has meant a re-alignment of voters.…
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German Election Betting Guide: Bets advised on vote share and next government
This article first appeared at casino.org on 20th September 2021 The most significant national election of 2021 takes place next weekend, as Europe’s biggest economy goes to the polls. It has already been an extremely dramatic betting heat. Merkel Retirement Is Proving Transformative Chancellor Angela Merkel is retiring after 16 years at the helm, leaving something of…
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French Election Betting: Macron is no certainty
This article first appeared at betting.betfair on April 13th 2021 One year today, the world will be digesting the first round results of the French Presidential Election and preparing for the decisive, two-way run-off. If the current projections prove accurate, we are set for another divisive culture war with enormous implications. I expect Macron v…
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European Elections: Back Change UK for a wipeout
This piece was first published on Monday 13th May – unfortunately these luxury odds on Change UK and Lib Dems performance are no longer available. Three months ago, they were the biggest story in Westminster. A group of high-profile defectors from Labour and the Conservatives, standing for moderation, centrism and cross-party collaboration in an era…
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Poll carnage as Tory and Labour tactics implode simultaneously
Perhaps the best way to understand the stalemate since 2016 and increasingly volatile situation is to see Brexit through the prism of party political games. Decades of opportunism is unravelling Long before the referendum, criticising and opposing EU treaties was a cheap win for any ambitious politician from outside government. Accuracy, detail or the ability…
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Swedish Election: Have the latest Alt-Right insurgents peaked already?
Europe’s next big election takes place in Sweden on Sunday, and the dominant themes will be familiar to anyone following politics in recent years. Just as we saw in France, Netherlands, Germany and Italy, the narrative involves declining establishment parties and a rising far-Right with realistic ambitions of becoming the largest party. The Sweden Democrats…
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Five political markets to follow in 2018
The date of the next UK General Election Whilst political betting is fast becoming a global phenomenon, nothing still quite compares to an election in the country that revolutionised it. Each of the last four years has seen a major domestic poll and our latest General Election involved a wider array of speciality markets than…