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2017 Review: The Year of the Liberal Backlash
For the third straight year, Betfair markets illustrated the new politics. Highly unpredictable, with conventional wisdom in crisis and unprecedented volatility. We have seen an outsider, with no party infrastructure, gatecrash the French presidency. The Democrats won Alabama. And Jeremy Corbyn came within a few constituencies of pulling off the greatest upset in the history…
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Is politics now inherently unpredictable?
I was recently privileged to join a distinguished panel for the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute, at Cambridge University, discussing the future of politics. In response to the question raised by this title, here’s my essay. Politics has only become uncertain because the rules of the game have changed In order to predict the future…
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Updates on the German and NZ Elections
Fourth term looks secure for Angela Merkel Three days out from the German Federal Election, Betfair markets could barely be offering a clearer signal towards the result. Despite short-odds punters getting burnt in a series of big polls around the globe recently, they are queueing up to back Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU party at the minimum…
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German Election Betting: Don’t bank on another grand coalition
For yet another illustration of how the political landscape and betting sentiment is constantly changing fast, check out the odds for next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Back at the beginning of 2017, with the world still in shock following Brexit and Donald Trump’s election, many believed that mainstream Europe and most dramatically Germany could also…
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The Alt-Right is wrong. Wilders won’t become Dutch PM.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past year, you will have heard about a political revolution sweeping the Western world. Brexit and the election of alt-Right hero Donald Trump were driven by the ‘silent majority’ rejecting mass immigration and a globalist agenda, imposed against their will by an out-of-touch political class. A…
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French Election Odds Update: Alain Juppe poised to land historic gamble
We thought it could never happen again. That no political market could ever compare to the 2016 US election. One where rumours, scandal and media speculation regularly sparked the most dramatic market moves on people who weren’t even running. One where a main candidate’s participation was in doubt right up to the closing stages. Yet…
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Political betting goes global after record year
Whatever one thinks of Brexit, Donald Trump and the wave of anti-establishment populism sweeping the Western world, we should all be able to agree that politics became a lot more interesting and unpredictable in 2016. The combination of drama, unique characters and the touchstone issues in play helped justify predictions of becoming the biggest ever…
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Outsiders look the value in search for an alternative to Fillon
Fuelled no doubt by the drama of 2016 and Marine Le Pen’s plausible candidacy, the French election was already shaping up to be a much bigger betting heat than usual before the Penelopegate scandal broke. Now, as I wrote earlier this week, we are looking at a potential re-run of the US election drama. In…
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Macron the new French favourite after Penelopegate
Once upon a time, political betting was just about the most predictable game on earth. National elections were won by the favourite. Period. Then along came 2016 and, like just about all things political, all of our assumptions and long-established trends became redundant. With Brexit and Donald Trump fresh in the memory, political bettors seem…