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Politico Series Part 5: Trump dominates before Super Tuesday
In the fifth of my series of US Election articles, I look back on the dramatic market movements following the New Hampshire Primary, through South Carolina and Nevada. Betting-wise, this was a quiet period for me, as Donald Trump continued to confound my expectations. Nevertheless, a small profit was bagged out of the frequently fluctuating…
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Politico Series Part 4: Rubio in freefall after NH debate disaster
This piece was written a few days after the New Hampshire primary, ahead of South Carolina and Nevada. Here, I document the dramatic rise and fall of Marco Rubio on betting markets. First, the market loved him in response to third place in Iowa and the media hype that followed. However as he famously stumbled…
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Politico Series Part 3: Looking ahead to New Hampshire
This piece was written a few days before the New Hampshire Primary. Looking back at some successful bets and my experiences in Iowa. I update market movements and developments in the race. However it must be said, I didn’t see Donald Trump winning NH by anything like his eventual margin! Click here to read the…
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Politico series part 2: Looking ahead to Iowa
An Election Gambler Predicts Iowa This piece, from January 2016, details my updated thoughts, bets and analysis in the run-up to the Iowa Caucuses. At the time, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump threatened to derail my long-term betting plan on Ted Cruz. Happily I stuck to my guns and opposed Trump once he had…
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Politico series part 1: Predicting the race ahead!
Why I’ve got money on Cruz instead of Trump. Throughout my US Election Tour, I’m writing a series for Politico Magazine, detailing and updating my positions, plus analysing the trajectory of the race. First, from December, here’s my original wide-ranging predictions for 2016, along with some background to the concept of political betting, my personal…