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Labour will perform better than many expect
England is not Scotland. Apologies for stating the bleeding obvious but the differences should not be forgotten when trying to weigh up the scale of disaster facing Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. We know the similarities and dire narrative. In Scotland, amidst a surge of nationalism in the wake of their independence referendum, Labour were swept…
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Can anything stop a Tory landslide?
During the 20th century, political scientists referred to UK Conservatives as the most successful political party in the Western world. Their secret was an ability to move with the times and adapt to a changing electorate. When a core policy became unpopular, they would drop it. While their rivals tore themselves apart over ideology, the…
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Gorton offers beleaguered Corbyn some respite
In the wake of last Thursday’s by-election double-header, the weekend political news cycle primarily concerned the future of Jeremy Corbyn. After losing Copeland after 80 years of Labour rule and holding ultra-safe Stoke-on-Trent Central on a diminished majority, no rational observer could deny the party’s grim mid-term position. However if his internal enemies hoped these…
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Final thoughts and predictions on tonight’s by-elections
A critical, changing feature of by-elections is that polls are few and far between nowadays. When we do hear about one, it tends to have been commissioned by a faction with an obvious agenda – such as the Labour Leave survey that suggested UKIP were on course to win Stoke easily. Polls have their weaknesses,…
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Tories popular ahead of by-election double-header
Phrases such as ‘must-win’ and ‘do-or-die’ have often been used to define the challenge facing parties in UK by-elections. Rarely, however, could such terms have legitimately applied to two different leaders. Yet one bad result on Thursday night could prove ruinous for either Jeremy Corbyn or Paul Nuttall. It is hard to recall a night…
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Political betting goes global after record year
Whatever one thinks of Brexit, Donald Trump and the wave of anti-establishment populism sweeping the Western world, we should all be able to agree that politics became a lot more interesting and unpredictable in 2016. The combination of drama, unique characters and the touchstone issues in play helped justify predictions of becoming the biggest ever…
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Clive Lewis poised as punters back Corbyn for early exit
Yesterday, anticipating Clive Lewis’ resignation from Labour’s Shadow Cabinet, I advised a new bet on the Norwich South MP at 8/1, following on from much earlier advice at 25/1. Today’s article discusses his prospects and the wider Labour crisis. New bet in light of looming Labour drama: Backed Clive Lewis 20 units @ 8-1…
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Corbyn crisis as UKIP assume Stoke favouritism
Earlier, I announced three new bets regarding the two forthcoming by-elections and on Jeremy Corbyn’s future. The piece below explores the two contests and wider implications for Labour. 2 new by-election bets: Backed UKIP 20 units @ Evens for Stoke; Laid (opposed) Labour 15 units @ 3.1 for Copeland. — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) January 26,…
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Hunt resignation piles pressure on Corbyn
When looking ahead to the big political betting stories of 2017, I discussed the likelihood of a series of by-elections being triggered by Labour MPs, aimed at destabilising Jeremy Corbyn, or at least having that effect. After a second of his fiercest critics quit this morning, we already have two to look forward to. In…
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Five big political betting stories to follow in 2017
The Jeremy Corbyn saga continues Following the biggest ever year in political betting history, dominated by Brexit and Donald Trump, there is plenty of scope for world-changing drama in 2017. As discussed below, there are three major European elections with profound implications for the continent. However in terms of providing betting activity throughout the whole…