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The big election losers? Corbyn’s Labour enemies
Amidst a predictably middling set of UK election results, only one faction emerged as clear losers – the substantial number of MPs, journalists and prominent Labour supporters who are implacably opposed to Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is not going anywhere in the short-term. These results were as good as could have been expected, one year after…
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How long can Jeremy Corbyn survive?
There has been much talk in the USA about the Republicans committing electoral suicide and it seems the phenomenon has spread to the UK Left, with the Labour Party seemingly hell-bent on implosion. Ahead of key elections across the UK on Thursday, Labour are in a terrible place. Ken Livingstone’s suspension amid accusations of anti-semitism…
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Opening Brexit trade: Back a narrow win for Remain
In ten week’s time, the UK will vote on arguably it’s most important political decision in over 40 years, regarding membership of the European Union. After considering and debating the question for 20, the time has come to bet on it. I’m still loathe to make a definitive prediction about the result. The current odds –…
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Next Conservative Leader: Lay George Osborne. Fast!
With much of his party on the verge of open revolt as Britain’s referendum on EU membership nears, David Cameron felt the need this weekend to stress that if the country votes to leave against what are now obviously his wishes, rather than resign, he would try and make it work. We don’t know the…
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Six political betting markets to watch in 2016
2016 looks set to be the biggest year in political betting history, with the US Presidential Election taking centre-stage plus various big contests in the UK. Here, for @BetfairExchange, I look forward to six particularly exciting markets. US Presidential Election – Republican Nominee There’s no question which country’s politics will produce the most betting action during 2016.…
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Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion
Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassroots opinion Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences…
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Debate: Does Oldham disaster signal UKIP’s imminent demise?
If they can’t compete in winnable by-elections, how can they progress? Hands up. I could not have called the Oldham by-election more wrong. Like many others, I thought at the very least UKIP would at least give Labour a close fight, so the scale of their victory was a huge shock. Different people with different…
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UKIP must be the value bet to win Oldham
Turnout will be pivotal, and recent history bodes ill for Labour on that score In general, by-elections are the hardest political markets to predict. Opinion polls are even less reliable than usual, asking a mid-term question that only a small minority of engaged voters have spent more than a few minutes considering. Recent UK by-elections have…
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Markets turn against Jeremy Corbyn as Labour’s crisis deepens
Defeat in this week’s by-election could prove a tipping point for controversial leader After another terrible week for Labour, Betfair markets are turning fast against the party and their new leader Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is now rated only 17% likely to lead Labour into the 2020 General Election, at odds of 6.2. On the Betfair Sportsbook,…
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Could tax credits row halt the Osborne bandwagon?
Is the Tory front-runners curse set to strike again? In every Conservative Party leadership contest since the advent of political betting, the early favourite went on to lose. With David Cameron saying he won’t run again, the starting pistol has been fired on the next race and George Osborne is very much in pole position.…