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Will the London Mayor be decided by personality or party?
What happens when neither main candidate is extremely famous already? Unless something dramatic occurs to produce some sort of party leadership contest in the meantime, the next big political betting event in the UK is next May’s London Mayoral Election. In the absence of a significant third candidate, the betting is naturally dominated by Labour’s…
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Next Tory leader: Theresa May looks the biggest threat to Osborne
Anti-immigration speech signals the Home Secretary’s intentions After yesterday’s confident, ambitious speech to his conference, there is no way David Cameron is leaving this job early. If so, that means the betting market to succeed him is going to last until at least 2019. Comparisons with the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown succession a decade ago are…
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In order to become Tory leader, Osborne must defy betting history
No early favourite has ever won a Conservative Party leadership contest Since masterminding a famous election victory, George Osborne has soared in the betting to be the Next Conservative Party leader. From 9.4 (11%) when I tipped him in March, the Chancellor is now the clear 2.8 favourite, rated a 35% chance. However political historians will confirm that…
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Is Corbyn Labour’s saviour or suicide note?
UK politics enters unchartered territory Wherever one stands on the ideological spectrum, or indeed whether one regards that spectrum to be a distraction from our goal of making money via betting on politics, we should all be able to agree about one simple fact. Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader of the Labour Party has just made…
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The race to succeed Cameron starts here
Osborne remains in pole position but history suggests much can change As the Tories head to Manchester for their annual conference, we can expect a triumphalist mood, in defiance of what have now also become annual protests outside. Having delivered their first overall majority since 1992, David Cameron can expect a hero’s welcome. This particular…
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PMQs: Corbyn changes the conversation
A good start, but the new leader’s fundamental problems were clear to see It is my confident prediction that more people watched this afternoon’s PMQs than ever before. Compared to the usual, mostly ignored, often derided piece of theatre, Jeremy Corbyn’s debut was genuinely a hot topic of conversation this morning. People from outside the political…
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Corbyn confounds media derision with 24/1 win
Although the profits were ensured weeks ago via a series of cover bets, today’s confirmation of Jeremy Corbyn as the next Labour leader was nevertheless a particularly satisfying moment. A vindication of my early tip, at which stage Corbyn was the unconsidered 24/1 outsider. A devastating blow for the credibility of the Westminster Village talking…
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Jeremy Corbyn tipped early at 24/1!
SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – AUGUST 25: Labour Leadership Candidate Jeremy Corbyn applauds as he speaks at a rally for supporters at the Hilton at the Ageas Bowl on August 25, 2015 in Southampton, England. Jeremy Corbyn remains the bookiesÕ favourite to win the Labour leadership contest which will be announced on September 12 after the ballots…