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Latest Boris Johnson Exit Odds: Is Boris on the Brink?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 23rd November 2021 Boris Johnson’s bad month goes from worse to terrible and Betfair markets are responding. The Prime Minister is now around evens to no longer be Conservative leader by 2024 and the odds about a 2022 exit are down to [3.45] – equivalent to a 29%…
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UK By-Elections Betting: North Shropshire far likelier to produce an upset
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th November 2021 Just as British politics gets interesting, as Labour register a series of poll leads for the first time under Keir Starmer’s leadership and Boris Johnson’s position becomes shakier than ever, we have a couple of by-elections. First in Old Bexley and Sidcup on 2 December,…
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Is Boris Johnson Destroying the Conservative Party As We Know It?
I do believe that perpetual crisis is upon us, and find it hard to believe it won’t affect those Tory voters. They are overwhelmingly elderly and therefore on fixed incomes. Tory policies kicking the poor, or students, don’t directly affect them. Inflation, especially energy prices and council tax, will.
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The multiple reasons why Boris Johnson will be gone by 2024
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 15th September 2021 Back in July, I added a new position to an ever expanding portfolio regarding Boris Johnson’s exit date. This was prior to all manner of drama. Afghanistan chaos. Tax rises. Labour’s first poll lead of 2021. To my great surprise, the betting has barely moved.…
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How long has Starmer’s sinking leadership left to run?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair on 9th June 2021 It is often said that Leader of the Opposition is the worst job in politics, as Keir Starmer is rapidly discovering. Not only are Labour way behind in national polls but their leader’s approval ratings are on the floor. Check these latest numbers from Ipsos-Mori.…
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Batley and Spen By-Election: Labour set to lose another brick in their crumbling Red Wall
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th June 2021 At the last English by-election, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives won the Hartlepool constituency for the first time. A stunning result that defied history and laid stark the demographic trends that now explain our politics. A fortnight today, the Tories are rated 94% likely to defend Chesham…
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Chesham and Amersham By-Election: Split opposition means little threat to Tories
Chesham and Amersham…is a seat the Tories have never lost and never achieved less than 50% of the vote.
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Local Elections Review: Starmer may be toast but Tories aren’t so dominant
This article first appeared on 12th May 2021 at betting.betfair.com Early Friday morning, I received a text from a friend. “Oh Dear. Labour have died.” At that stage, their catastrophic defeat in the Hartlepool by-election was the only story in town. 24 hours later, after various Mayoral gains, improvements and their best result in Wales…
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Could the Jennifer Arcuri scandal bring down Boris Johnson?
“The Covid contracts scandal simply hasn’t cut through or moved the needle. The opposition’s best hope is that something else will, and start an avalanche.”
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Predictions of Labour Demise May Again Prove Premature
This is one of the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats that Labour held amid their 2019 disaster, and therefore more indicative of the national picture than London or Scotland. Defeat would be catastrophic for Keir Starmer.