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Starmer Thrives at PMQs But Does it Matter?
“So far as the commentariat were concerned, the new Labour leader made a big impact.”
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Will Keir Starmer turn Labour’s fortunes around?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th April 2020 Sir Keir Starmer has been confirmed as the new Labour leader and Angela Rayner will be his deputy. Their victories were resounding. Starmer won in the first round of the party’s AV system with 56.2%. Rayner won 41.7% in the first round and passed the…
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Six famous leadership contest upsets
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st April 2020 For weeks, the markets for Next Labour Leader and Next Deputy Labour Leader have been stagnant. It is assumed that Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner will win, as respective odds of [1.02] and [1.01] illustrate. I’ve no reason to expect an upset but were the…
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Next Tory Leader – Should we get behind the Sunak gamble?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 27th March 2020 It should by now go without saying – politics moves fast. Can anyone recall, anywhere, a reputation growing faster than Rishi Sunak? Six months ago, the 39 year-old MP for Richmond was barely known. When Boris Johnson opted out of a ‘Leaders Debate’ during the…
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How Political Betting Went Global During the Trump Era
The US Election is a huge betting market, lasting well over a year. With sports canceled amid the coronavirus, the 2020 Presidental Election may well be the biggest single betting event of the year. To many Americans, November’s general election feels like one of the most critical moments in the history of the Republic. The…
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Next Labour Leader – Starmer ahead on most measures
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 19th January 2020 Keir Starmer has received a further boost to his campaign to be Next Labour Leader with the release of a new Yougov poll of Labour members. When last taken at the end of 2019, he was estimated to be 61-39 ahead of Rebecca Long-Bailey in…
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Next Labour Leader – History tells us to beware early signals
The Labour leadership contest has a clear front-runner. Keir Starmer isn’t the first to trade at odds-on to succeed Jeremy Corbyn – Rebecca Long Bailey did so before Christmas, as did Owen Smith back in 2016. However the former Director of Public Prosecutions is the first to hold this position in the betting based on…
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Next Labour Leader Candidates – Strengths and Weaknesses
Rebecca Long Bailey has key backing from the Left POSITIVE: During Jeremy Corbyn’s four years as Labour leader, the Left of the party assumed control of much of the internal machinery – the National Executive Committee, for instance – prompting a narrative that his allies are now in total control. If that is so, Rebecca…
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How the Commentariat Underestimated Boris Johnson
What a difference a few months can make in politics. When Boris Johnson became Tory leader back in July, bookies were taking bets on him being the shortest-lived PM in history. Even 2020 seemed a long way off. Having secured the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher, it’s now plausible he could become the longest serving.…
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Four takeaways from the UK General Election
This article first appeared on 16th December, for betting.betfair.com The Exit Poll emerges triumphant but is imperfect This may sound strange, having spent the last six weeks totally immersed in it, but this was quite a boring election. At least from a betting perspective. Once the Tories opened up an early lead, victory never looked…