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Next Labour Leader – Who will succeed Corbyn?
This article first appeared on December 13th at gambling.com The post-mortem began less than a minute after 10pm last night, when the exit poll accurately predicted Labour’s worst result since 1935. Jeremy Corbyn has confirmed he won’t lead Labour into another election but, frustratingly for the 6/1 bet advised in January on all three party leaders…
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UK General Election – Final Predictions
At this stage of the last general election, we pundits were in unanimous agreement that Theresa May would win a majority. My predictions were very much at the lower end of those estimates yet still proved miles off, as Labour pulled off one of the most remarkable upsets in the history of political betting. Don’t…
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UK General Election Analysis
This piece was first published on Tuesday 10th December for gambling.com In previewing this general election over several months, I’ve put up two positions available on the political betting sites – Conservatives to win most seats at 4-5, No Overall Majority at 4-6. According to the betting, the first is nailed on at 1-20 with BetVictor, with the…
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How will the Liberal Democrats fare?
If I could take back one recent prediction, it regards Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems. When this campaign started, I thought they would benefit from extra exposure, particularly for their Revoke stance on Brexit – divisive for sure, but clearer than Labour’s muddled offering. 20-25% seemed realistic. As it transpires, the Lib Dem in the last…
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UK General Election – How will Labour fare?
This article first appeared at gambling.com on 3rd December. With a fortnight of campaigning left, there’s no doubt Labour are in a very bad place. On current estimates derived from YouGov’s MRP model, they will lose 51 seats, handing the Tories a majority of 68. As always in political betting on elections, remember to treat such projections…
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UK General Election: How will the Conservatives fare?
This article first appeared at gambling.com on November 27th 2019 There are numerous ways to get involved in political betting in an election, covering just about every angle of each party’s performance. But what is the best way to bet on a party you expect to go well? Take the example of the front-runners in the polls.…
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UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 10: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights
Ochil and South Perthshire Click here for latest live odds This is another constituency that voted for different parties in the last three general elections – the Tories came from third last time, aided by the Labour vote falling 8%. This share probably correlates with Unionist fears of independence and a 40% Leave vote. The…
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UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 9 – How many of these top-ten SNP targets will fall?
Stirling Click here for latest live odds Stirling voted for different parties in each of the last three elections and was a particularly impressive gain for the Tories in 2017, who were buoyant at that time under Ruth Davidson. However with the latest Scottish poll projecting 5% swing from CON-SNP since 2017, the 158 Tory…
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How to bet on the 2019 UK General Election
Back in March, I recommended a bet on the UK holding a General Election in 2019 at odds of +176 (7/4). That bet went to the wire before ultimately winning – the election will be held in less than two weeks, on December 12. As always it is a huge betting heat, involving hundreds of different markets.…
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UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 8
Southampton Itchen Click here for latest live odds Buoyed no doubt by a third of the constituency being aged 18-34, Labour came within 331 votes of an upset here in 2017. While polls show significant national swing against them since, gaining it is not beyond them, especially if the rise in youth registration translates into…