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Win free tickets to the Matchbook Traders Conference!
We’ve got a great event to look forward to at the beginning of next month – a unique opportunity to hear some of the finest minds from the world of betting and network with a like-minded audience of gambling enthusiasts. The annual Matchbook Traders Conference has already developed a tremendous reputation and will take place in…
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Is politics now inherently unpredictable?
I was recently privileged to join a distinguished panel for the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute, at Cambridge University, discussing the future of politics. In response to the question raised by this title, here’s my essay. Politics has only become uncertain because the rules of the game have changed In order to predict the future…
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Are these the 10 names on Trump’s VP shortlist?
With confirmation that Hillary Clinton will not be indicted and with a few days until the long-winded plans to strip Donald Trump from the Republican nomination are almost certainly defeated, the big story involves their respective VP picks. Trump goes first in Cleveland next week and speculation continues to circle about numerous candidates, even at…
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For once, we can trust the Tory favourites
I’ve recently announced two new positions on the Tory leadership on Twitter. New bet on #Toryleadership: 100 units on Theresa May @ 1.45. Explanation to follow soon! — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) July 5, 2016 #Toryleadership bet update: Closing out earlier 15 unit lay of Andrea Leadsom @ 4 at the same price. No need, given…
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If you think Trump will be nominee, now is the time to bet
Cruz and Trump’s combined odds understate their chance It goes without saying that the political leaning of US states differs, and that results will therefore vary significantly between primaries. Yet basing betting strategy on that simple, easily attained knowledge will have yielded easy profits throughout this cycle. For example, since primary voting began, the best…
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Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions
On what feels like it will be the most important night yet of this election, we have ten races to predict and play. Some of the odds have changed in the meantime, but yesterday’s piece offers a brief overview. First, lets start with a bet. Back Ted Cruz to win the Missouri Primary 10 units…
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GOP split as Trump maintains momentum
The 2016 US Election remains the most exciting heat in the history of political betting and the fun has barely started. Mid-March is traditionally the time when the primary races become predictable, with both parties broadly settled on their nominees. This time is completely different. Even the Democrat side, where the market rates Hillary Clinton…