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Iowa Caucus Betting Preview and Analysis
This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 29th, 2020 Less than one week out from the Iowa Caucuses – the traditional curtain raiser of primary season – Bernie Sanders is all the rage. He’s into a best-priced 7/4 with Unibet for the Democratic nomination and 9/2 with Coral to become the Next President. Sanders Odds-On For Each Of First Three…
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Trump’s odds for 2020 are more wrong than ever
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on January 23rd, 2020 America is watching the impeachment trial of Donald Trump but there is no signal whatsoever from Betfair markets that the process is damaging his chances of re-election. No long-term reader of mine will be surprised to learn that I disagree. Trump odds-on for re-election despite…
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US Election: Rating the top seven Democrat candidates
A US Election is a marathon like no other. Prior to the main event in November and all the related state, margin and electoral college markets, there are fifty primaries covering each state to resolve the Democrat Candidates. Primary season starts in a fortnight at the Iowa Caucus. Since the Democrat race begun last summer,…
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US Election – Biden and Sanders lead Democrat nominee list
This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 20th 2020 When the race to become Democrat Nominee began, a prevailing narrative swiftly emerged. Obsessed with diversity, the base would prefer a woman or person of colour. Ticking both boxes, Kamala Harris was the early favourite in the politics betting markets. A fortnight from the start of the…
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2020 US Election – Bernie Sanders gaining market momentum
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 12th January With primary season less than a month away, the 2020 US Election is underway in earnest, There have of course been numerous Democrat debates already but none carries anything like the importance of Tuesday’s six-way debate in Iowa, which will host the opening caucuses on February…
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How long can Donald Trump survive?
This article first appeared on 21st November 2019 at www.casino.org Four years analysing the betting around Donald Trump has frequently involved speculating whether, how and when this incredible story will end. My last update predicted a terrible autumn for the President, beset by multiple investigations, resulting in impeachment by the House of Representatives. As we watch…
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Latest Donald Trump Impeachment Odds and Analysis
This article was first published for Betfair Australia’s “The Hub” on 11th October 2019 With just over a year until the 2020 election, Donald Trump is in turmoil. Since Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry, the President has been beset by even more scandal than usual. His chance of re-election is falling, from 50% to…
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Donald Trump Impeachment Betting – Impeachment by the House now odds-on
This article first appeared on 25th September 2019 at betting.betfair.com After months, even years of speculation, Democrats have stepped up. Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed last night that the House of Representatives will begin a formal impeachment investigation into Donald Trump. The times have found us. The actions taken to date by the President have seriously…
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Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
This article first appeared on 30th August at casino.org Among the few sages that predicted Donald Trump’s historic betting upset in 2016 was Professor Allan Lichtman. He also predicted that the new president would be impeached and duly wrote a book laying out the case. He now predicts Trump will win again in 2020 unless the Democrats…
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2020 US Election – Could Donald Trump be replaced on the GOP ticket?
Donald Trump is weakening on Betfair’s 2020 US Election markets. From a low of 1.98 he’s out to 2.24 in the wake of atrocious polls and ever more erratic behaviour. There’s also a minor move against him to be the Republican Nominee, from 1.08 to 1.14. Granted, these are lower odds than the levels I’ve…