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Interview for Business of Betting Podcast
This was a most enjoyable interview from earlier this year, with Jake Williams for his Business of Betting podcast. We discuss my route into political betting and becoming a professional gambler. Of particular relevance is our conversation regarding the 2020 election and how many extra variables we have to deal with nowadays, such as fake…
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Donald Trump Impeachment Betting and Analysis
Throughout the last few, relentlessly dramatic years, it has become increasingly clear that most of the British media is hopeless when it comes to covering US politics. Back in March, I immediately urged caution when almost every outlet portrayed Attorney General William Barr’s summary of the Mueller Report as fact – even the final word.…
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2020 US Election and Democratic Nominee Betting and Analysis
This article was first published on 17th July, for betting.betfair.com It has been three weeks since the first of the Democrat TV debates, as they search for their nominee for the 2020 US Presidential Election. During that short window, the betting has changed dramatically. Harris now favourite as Biden slips When former Vice President Joe…
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2020 US Election Betting: Is the Biden Bounce for real?
The most significant gamble towards the 2020 US Election is underway. In the fortnight since Joe Biden declared his candidacy, the former Vice President has risen to clear second favourite behind Donald Trump, with his odds shortening from 15.0 to a new low of 6.4 this morning. Biden opens up vast early primary lead If…
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Trump impeachment is back on the agenda
This piece was first published on 22nd April 2019 When last updating the Donald Trump saga, following the release of Attorney General’s William Barr’s four page summary into Russia investigation, I urged caution in drawing conclusions before the actual Mueller Report was published. Now a heavily redacted version has been released, that analysis is vindicated.…
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Biden is the new front-runner but should we back him?
This piece was first written on 29th April 2019. The 19th and most significant Democrat candidate to date has declared for 2020. Amid a blaze of publicity, Joe Biden launched his presidential campaign with a direct pitch for what opinion polls suggest over half the country want. Rather than policy specifics, the former VP declared…
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Beware the bandwagon – we’ve not yet seen the Mueller report
As he scours the headlines and hot takes on cable news, Donald Trump will enjoy this morning more than any since becoming president in 2016. The first glimpses of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report into Russian interference in that election are out and on the principal charge, Trump and his campaign have been cleared of…
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Cohen testimony was merely the start of Donald Trump’s nightmare
It made instant news around the world, overshadowing the North Korea summit failure, It even knocked Brexit off the Newsnight lead. Michael Cohen’s testimony to Congress was both captivating in detail – laying out the president’s crimes and sparking new lines of investigation into several more – and political theatre. But did it move Betfair’s…
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Four reasons why you shouldn’t bet on Bernie Sanders for 2020
This piece is from a fortnight ago. Bernie Sanders best odds are now 10/1 for the presidency and 11/2 for the Democrat nomination. All the arguments against still apply! A frequent political betting mistake is to refight the previous election. To assume the dynamics will be replicated. That the narrative which worked previously will remain…
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Five potential Republican primary challengers to Donald Trump
As if 2019 didn’t present enough problems for Donald Trump, there are indications that he is losing Republican support. Previously compliant Senators now oppose him on a range of issues – tariffs, troop withdrawals, the shutdown. Further opposition looms if he persists with plans to call a state of emergency over funding for his wall.…